Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Apr. 9th
Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength. The stock markets are rallying this morning with the Dow up 192 points and the Nasdaq up 48 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today's only monthly economic data was February's Goods and Service Trade Balance. It showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell to $26.0 billion in February. This was much lower than expected and was its lowest level since 1999. Unfortunately, this data isn't considered to be highly important to mortgage rates directly. In fact, the news has had little impact on trading despite the wide variance between forecasts and the actual reading. However, news like this can strengthen the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, making U.S. securities more appealing to international investors. This is because a stronger dollar makes the securities more valuable when sold and their proceeds are converted to the investors' own currency.
The Labor Department reported that 654,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was close to forecasts and also has had little influence on this morning's bond trading or mortgage rates.
Yesterday's FOMC minutes basically gave the bond market good news but consumers and businesses bad news. The minutes showed that during the last meeting the Fed revised their outlook for the economy and recovery to a worse position. They extended out their estimate of when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the most important benchmark of economic activity, will stabilize. They also renewed concerns about deflation, meaning that inflation is not an immediate concern. Overall, the minutes didn't reveal any major surprises, but did support the theory that the economy is worse than many, including the Fed, had previously thought. Generally speaking, weak economic conditions usually create a favorable environment for bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.
Today's 10-year Treasury auction's results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we may see bond prices improve and mortgage rates revise lower during the last hour of trading. The bond market will close today at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow's Good Friday holiday. The markets will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours. Most lenders will be closed tomorrow also, but if any are working they will likely keep today's afternoon rates until Monday morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Disclaimer: If you have a Massachusetts Mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may choose to lock your rate. Most lenders have a re-negotiation policy. Call me to review your scenario. Refinance to a low rate fixed rate mortgage in Massachusetts.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Monday Apr. 6th
Monday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since given back those gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off in negative territory with the Dow down 125 points and the Nasdaq down 36 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates.
This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of little relevant economic data for the markets to digest. There is only one monthly or quarterly economic report on the calendar for this week and it is one of the least important reports regularly posted. We will, however, see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and have a couple of Treasury auctions to watch.
There is no relevant news scheduled to be posted until Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants will be looking at these minutes closely. They give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Wednesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.
The two Treasury auctions are scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale Tuesday and a regular 10-year Note sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing tomorrow and/or Thursday afternoon.
Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. The same goes for Thursday's auction (Tomorrow's sale will probably have less influence on the markets than Thursday's). In addition, the bond market will close early Thursday and remain closed until Monday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. This could lead to some additional volatility as traders look to protect themselves over the long weekend.
In other words, we may have a very calm week ahead of us, or we may see rates move noticeably several days. With no important economic data to drive trading and mortgage rates, bonds may move with stocks. This means large stock gains could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. But stock weakness could lead to mortgage pricing improving for the week. Regardless, a lack of economic data is not reason to let our guard down if still floating an interest rate. Watch the market closely and proceed cautiously if not locked yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Massachusetts borrowers- Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details and discuss your home loan and refinance needs
Monday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since given back those gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off in negative territory with the Dow down 125 points and the Nasdaq down 36 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates.
This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of little relevant economic data for the markets to digest. There is only one monthly or quarterly economic report on the calendar for this week and it is one of the least important reports regularly posted. We will, however, see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and have a couple of Treasury auctions to watch.
There is no relevant news scheduled to be posted until Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants will be looking at these minutes closely. They give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Wednesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.
The two Treasury auctions are scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale Tuesday and a regular 10-year Note sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing tomorrow and/or Thursday afternoon.
Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. The same goes for Thursday's auction (Tomorrow's sale will probably have less influence on the markets than Thursday's). In addition, the bond market will close early Thursday and remain closed until Monday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. This could lead to some additional volatility as traders look to protect themselves over the long weekend.
In other words, we may have a very calm week ahead of us, or we may see rates move noticeably several days. With no important economic data to drive trading and mortgage rates, bonds may move with stocks. This means large stock gains could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. But stock weakness could lead to mortgage pricing improving for the week. Regardless, a lack of economic data is not reason to let our guard down if still floating an interest rate. Watch the market closely and proceed cautiously if not locked yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Massachusetts borrowers- Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details and discuss your home loan and refinance needs
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Apr. 3rd
Friday's bond market is in negative territory again despite news of a 25-year high unemployment rate. The stock markets are also showing losses with the Dow down 52 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, but we will still see an improvement of approximately .125 in this morning's mortgage rates as a result of strength late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see an upward revision to rates later today if the bond market remain near current levels or fall further.
The Labor Department announced this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 8.5% last month, its highest level since November 1983. The payroll reading of today's report showed similar results with 663,000 jobs lost during the month. That figure put us above 2 million jobs lost so far this year. To put that figure in perspective, if the year ended last week, this would have been the fourth worst year on record in job losses. Unfortunately, we still have three quarters of the year to go.
The bad news for bonds is that this morning's figures nearly matched forecasts. The lack of weaker than expected figures has made bonds less appealing this morning. At least we did not get stronger than expected numbers or we may have seen a sizable bond sell-off. Still, I think there is a pretty good possibility of getting an upward revision to rates sometime today unless bonds can rebound.
Next week is very light in terms of economic data, therefore, there is little news to drive bond prices higher or mortgage rates lower. If the stock markets retreat, bonds may come into favor with traders, but without something to fuel bond buying I don't think we can see much of an improvement in mortgage rates. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday's bond market is in negative territory again despite news of a 25-year high unemployment rate. The stock markets are also showing losses with the Dow down 52 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, but we will still see an improvement of approximately .125 in this morning's mortgage rates as a result of strength late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see an upward revision to rates later today if the bond market remain near current levels or fall further.
The Labor Department announced this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 8.5% last month, its highest level since November 1983. The payroll reading of today's report showed similar results with 663,000 jobs lost during the month. That figure put us above 2 million jobs lost so far this year. To put that figure in perspective, if the year ended last week, this would have been the fourth worst year on record in job losses. Unfortunately, we still have three quarters of the year to go.
The bad news for bonds is that this morning's figures nearly matched forecasts. The lack of weaker than expected figures has made bonds less appealing this morning. At least we did not get stronger than expected numbers or we may have seen a sizable bond sell-off. Still, I think there is a pretty good possibility of getting an upward revision to rates sometime today unless bonds can rebound.
Next week is very light in terms of economic data, therefore, there is little news to drive bond prices higher or mortgage rates lower. If the stock markets retreat, bonds may come into favor with traders, but without something to fuel bond buying I don't think we can see much of an improvement in mortgage rates. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, April 3, 2009
New LOW for Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates
Mortgage products tracked by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey hit new interest rate lows this week. For the 30-year it was the fourth time in 2009 a new record has been established.
The survey covering the week ended April 2 reported the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 4.78 percent compared to the previous record low set last week of 4.85 percent. Fees and points were unchanged at 0.7 point. Freddie Mac has been tracking the 30-year FRM since 1971.
The 15-year FRM dropped to 4.52 percent with 0.7 point. Last week the rate set a historical low at 4.58 percent with 0.7 point. This weeks rate is exactly 1 percent lower than it was during the same week in 2008 and the lowest level reached by the 15-year since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 1991.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged a record 4.96 percent also with 0.7 point. The 5-year ARM has never been lower in the life of Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which dates back to 2005 for this product.
Lock in a new Refinance Mortgage with a fixed rate Massachusetts Mortgage Loan.
The survey covering the week ended April 2 reported the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 4.78 percent compared to the previous record low set last week of 4.85 percent. Fees and points were unchanged at 0.7 point. Freddie Mac has been tracking the 30-year FRM since 1971.
The 15-year FRM dropped to 4.52 percent with 0.7 point. Last week the rate set a historical low at 4.58 percent with 0.7 point. This weeks rate is exactly 1 percent lower than it was during the same week in 2008 and the lowest level reached by the 15-year since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 1991.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged a record 4.96 percent also with 0.7 point. The 5-year ARM has never been lower in the life of Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which dates back to 2005 for this product.
Lock in a new Refinance Mortgage with a fixed rate Massachusetts Mortgage Loan.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Apr. 1st
Wednesday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data failed to move the markets. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said late this morning that their manufacturing index rose from 35.8 in February to 36.3 in March. This means that manufacturer sentiment rose slightly more than what analysts had expected. However, the difference was not sufficient enough to really hurt mortgage rates this morning.
Tomorrow morning we will see February's Factory Orders data. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength, but is considered moderately important. It is expected to show a 1.4% rise in new orders according to new forecasts. A smaller increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger rise could push mortgage pricing slightly higher tomorrow.
The Labor Department will be giving us weekly unemployment figures tomorrow morning. These weekly figures usually have little influence on rates, but with Friday's big monthly employment report the following day, tomorrow's numbers may influence trading if they vary much from forecasts. I don't expect this release to create a significant movement in the markets or rates, but may influence them slightly more than usual. Analysts are predicting that 650,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data failed to move the markets. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said late this morning that their manufacturing index rose from 35.8 in February to 36.3 in March. This means that manufacturer sentiment rose slightly more than what analysts had expected. However, the difference was not sufficient enough to really hurt mortgage rates this morning.
Tomorrow morning we will see February's Factory Orders data. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength, but is considered moderately important. It is expected to show a 1.4% rise in new orders according to new forecasts. A smaller increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger rise could push mortgage pricing slightly higher tomorrow.
The Labor Department will be giving us weekly unemployment figures tomorrow morning. These weekly figures usually have little influence on rates, but with Friday's big monthly employment report the following day, tomorrow's numbers may influence trading if they vary much from forecasts. I don't expect this release to create a significant movement in the markets or rates, but may influence them slightly more than usual. Analysts are predicting that 650,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Mortgage Market Update
Mortgage Market Commentary
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) prices have fallen sharply (rates higher) as the Fed prepares for its 4th outright purchase of Treasuries as part of its effort to lower borrowing costs and stronger than expected economic reports are released; FNMA 4.0% coupon 100.59bps, -13bps and the low of the day. The effort to lower mortgage rates hasn't yet ignited home buying but it has definitely caused a surge in refinancing (+3.7% % 79% of all applications), meaning fewer foreclosures and less homes weighing on supply. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell back for a second straight month to 150k in March vs 185k in February and down from January's peak of 242k. ADP Employer Services gauge drop of minus 742k workers was larger than expected, pointing to no relief in sight for labor market. ISM Mfg Index edged higher in February to a level only modestly above December's record low, indicating little improvement in the near term. Construction Spending fell again, but not as much as expected in February, with weakness in private residential outlays. Pending Home Sales rose 2.1% from a record low as buyers took advantage of deeply discounted prices and low interest rates pointing to momentum for the housing sector going into the key months of April and May.
Massachusetts Mortgage Rates at 52 year Lows! Lock in a low fixed rate Refinance Mortgage Loan.
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) prices have fallen sharply (rates higher) as the Fed prepares for its 4th outright purchase of Treasuries as part of its effort to lower borrowing costs and stronger than expected economic reports are released; FNMA 4.0% coupon 100.59bps, -13bps and the low of the day. The effort to lower mortgage rates hasn't yet ignited home buying but it has definitely caused a surge in refinancing (+3.7% % 79% of all applications), meaning fewer foreclosures and less homes weighing on supply. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell back for a second straight month to 150k in March vs 185k in February and down from January's peak of 242k. ADP Employer Services gauge drop of minus 742k workers was larger than expected, pointing to no relief in sight for labor market. ISM Mfg Index edged higher in February to a level only modestly above December's record low, indicating little improvement in the near term. Construction Spending fell again, but not as much as expected in February, with weakness in private residential outlays. Pending Home Sales rose 2.1% from a record low as buyers took advantage of deeply discounted prices and low interest rates pointing to momentum for the housing sector going into the key months of April and May.
Massachusetts Mortgage Rates at 52 year Lows! Lock in a low fixed rate Refinance Mortgage Loan.
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Mar. 31st
Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again despite early stock gains. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday's sell off with the Dow up approximately 100 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.
The Conference Board reported late this morning that March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose this month. The reading of 26.0 was a small increase from February's revised reading of 25.3, but was lower than forecasts had called for. However, the difference was not enough to affect mortgage rates.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late tomorrow morning. This important index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives. A reading below 50 means more surveyed executives felt business worsened during the month than those who said it had improved. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 36.0, which would be a slight increase from February's reading of 35.8. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained close to last month's level.
February's Factory Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is also the least important of this week's four reports. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.3% decline, I suspect that it will be a non-factor in the mortgage market, especially with Friday's Employment report being posted.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Applying for a Massachusetts Mortgage? Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again despite early stock gains. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday's sell off with the Dow up approximately 100 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.
The Conference Board reported late this morning that March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose this month. The reading of 26.0 was a small increase from February's revised reading of 25.3, but was lower than forecasts had called for. However, the difference was not enough to affect mortgage rates.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late tomorrow morning. This important index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives. A reading below 50 means more surveyed executives felt business worsened during the month than those who said it had improved. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 36.0, which would be a slight increase from February's reading of 35.8. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained close to last month's level.
February's Factory Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is also the least important of this week's four reports. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.3% decline, I suspect that it will be a non-factor in the mortgage market, especially with Friday's Employment report being posted.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Applying for a Massachusetts Mortgage? Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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