Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are extending yesterday’s gains with the Dow up 60 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The first release of the week comes tomorrow afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
Also tomorrow is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by the 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading tomorrow and Thursday.
I am expecting the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage rates tomorrow morning. We may see weakness in bonds prior to the Treasury auction that may also put some pressure on mortgage rates. But we will likely see little change in rates until tomorrow afternoon.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 09/08/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat after the holiday weekend with no relevant economic data scheduled for release today and only minor gains in the stock markets. The major stock indexes have opened the week relatively calm with the Dow up 32 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Friday’s close, but we will still likely see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday’s morning rates.
This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data, but none of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic releases, we also have two Treasury auctions that may play a role in this week’s mortgage pricing.
The first release of the week comes Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
Also Wednesday is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by the 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.
Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. We only have four days of trading to be concerned with. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the most important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, I believe we will only see minor changes to mortgage rates the next few days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat after the holiday weekend with no relevant economic data scheduled for release today and only minor gains in the stock markets. The major stock indexes have opened the week relatively calm with the Dow up 32 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Friday’s close, but we will still likely see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday’s morning rates.
This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data, but none of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic releases, we also have two Treasury auctions that may play a role in this week’s mortgage pricing.
The first release of the week comes Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
Also Wednesday is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by the 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.
Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. We only have four days of trading to be concerned with. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the most important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, I believe we will only see minor changes to mortgage rates the next few days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Monday, September 7, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage rate Commentary week of 9/6/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data, but none of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic releases, we also have two Treasury auctions that may play a role in this week’s mortgage pricing. The markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Labor Day holiday, meaning mortgage lenders will follow suit.
The first release of the week comes Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
Also Wednesday is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by the 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.
July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted early Thursday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $27.4 billion, which would be a small increase from June’s $27.0 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates regardless of its results.
The last report of the week will be posted by the University of Michigan. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 67.8 that would mean confidence rose from August’s final reading. That would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. With the financial markets closed tomorrow, we only have four days of trading. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the most important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, I believe we will only see minor changes to mortgage rates the next few days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now....
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data, but none of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic releases, we also have two Treasury auctions that may play a role in this week’s mortgage pricing. The markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Labor Day holiday, meaning mortgage lenders will follow suit.
The first release of the week comes Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by region. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.
Also Wednesday is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by the 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.
July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted early Thursday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $27.4 billion, which would be a small increase from June’s $27.0 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates regardless of its results.
The last report of the week will be posted by the University of Michigan. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 67.8 that would mean confidence rose from August’s final reading. That would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. With the financial markets closed tomorrow, we only have four days of trading. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the most important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, I believe we will only see minor changes to mortgage rates the next few days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now....
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Friday, September 4, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 09/04/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory after today's major employment news did not reveal significantly weaker than expected readings. The stock markets have reacted mildly to the news though with the Dow up just 30 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the unemployment rate moved from 9.4% in July to 9.7% last month. This was higher than the 9.5% rate that was expected, which can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, only 216,000 jobs were lost during the month when analysts were expecting to see a slightly larger decline. A revision to July's job loss number showed that 276,000 jobs were lost compared to the 247,000 announced last month. But this worked against bonds today because the 216,000 now shows a larger improvement from July to August than what was predicted.
Also hurting bonds this morning is the average hourly earnings reading in the report that revealed a 0.3% rise in earnings. This was much higher than the 0.1% that was expected, meaning earnings rose more than many had thought. That is bad news for bonds because rising wages raises wage inflation fears than can lead to broader inflation spikes within the economy.
As expected, it was going to take a much weaker than forecasted employment report for the bond market to improve. This could lead to further selling in bonds and possible upward revisions to mortgage rates as the day progresses. I would not be surprised at all to see an upward revision to rates sometime this afternoon.
The financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. However, there will not be an early close in the bond market today although many traders may be heading home early for the long weekend. This may also fuel more selling in bonds as those traders look to protect themselves over the holiday weekend.
Next week is fairly light in terms of economic reports scheduled for release. As mentioned, the markets will be closed Monday as will most mortgage lenders. There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release until Wednesday next week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory after today's major employment news did not reveal significantly weaker than expected readings. The stock markets have reacted mildly to the news though with the Dow up just 30 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the unemployment rate moved from 9.4% in July to 9.7% last month. This was higher than the 9.5% rate that was expected, which can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, only 216,000 jobs were lost during the month when analysts were expecting to see a slightly larger decline. A revision to July's job loss number showed that 276,000 jobs were lost compared to the 247,000 announced last month. But this worked against bonds today because the 216,000 now shows a larger improvement from July to August than what was predicted.
Also hurting bonds this morning is the average hourly earnings reading in the report that revealed a 0.3% rise in earnings. This was much higher than the 0.1% that was expected, meaning earnings rose more than many had thought. That is bad news for bonds because rising wages raises wage inflation fears than can lead to broader inflation spikes within the economy.
As expected, it was going to take a much weaker than forecasted employment report for the bond market to improve. This could lead to further selling in bonds and possible upward revisions to mortgage rates as the day progresses. I would not be surprised at all to see an upward revision to rates sometime this afternoon.
The financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. However, there will not be an early close in the bond market today although many traders may be heading home early for the long weekend. This may also fuel more selling in bonds as those traders look to protect themselves over the holiday weekend.
Next week is fairly light in terms of economic reports scheduled for release. As mentioned, the markets will be closed Monday as will most mortgage lenders. There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release until Wednesday next week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 09/03/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after the stock markets opened with minor gains and there was no important economic data on the calendar to influence trading. The Dow is currently up 25 points while the Nasdaq has gained 5 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The only semi-relevant economic data posted today was last week’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department and the ISM services index. Many traders are waiting for tomorrow’s major news before making adjustments to their portfolios. The Labor Department reported this morning that 570,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week and the ISM index revealed a reading of 48.4. Both of these were very close to expectations but neither are considered to be of much importance to the markets. Therefore, the bond market has been mostly influenced by stock trading and preparation for tomorrow’s news.
Yesterday’s afternoon release of the FOMC minutes didn’t have much of an impact on trading or mortgage rates. They revealed that the Fed is still optimistic about an economic recovery, but at a slow pace. They are still concerned about the vulnerability of the recovery and particularly the labor market and they also did not reference a significant concern about inflation- all good news for bonds. However, none of it came as much of a surprise to traders.
The big news of the week comes tomorrow morning. The Labor Department will post the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings for August early Friday. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in payrolls and earnings to remain unchanged. Analysts are expecting to see that the unemployment rate moved from 9.4% to 9.5% and that 225,000 jobs were lost during the month. Weaker then expected readings would be very good news for bonds and likely lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. But, if we get stronger than expected numbers, mortgage rates will probably spike higher tomorrow.
I suspect that we will need to see weaker than expected readings for bonds to rally tomorrow. With the bond market at the higher end of its recent trading range, just matching forecasts may be a relief for stocks that could lead to selling in bonds and a rally in stocks. Accordingly proceed cautiously if still floating any interest rate and closing in the immediate future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after the stock markets opened with minor gains and there was no important economic data on the calendar to influence trading. The Dow is currently up 25 points while the Nasdaq has gained 5 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The only semi-relevant economic data posted today was last week’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department and the ISM services index. Many traders are waiting for tomorrow’s major news before making adjustments to their portfolios. The Labor Department reported this morning that 570,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week and the ISM index revealed a reading of 48.4. Both of these were very close to expectations but neither are considered to be of much importance to the markets. Therefore, the bond market has been mostly influenced by stock trading and preparation for tomorrow’s news.
Yesterday’s afternoon release of the FOMC minutes didn’t have much of an impact on trading or mortgage rates. They revealed that the Fed is still optimistic about an economic recovery, but at a slow pace. They are still concerned about the vulnerability of the recovery and particularly the labor market and they also did not reference a significant concern about inflation- all good news for bonds. However, none of it came as much of a surprise to traders.
The big news of the week comes tomorrow morning. The Labor Department will post the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings for August early Friday. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in payrolls and earnings to remain unchanged. Analysts are expecting to see that the unemployment rate moved from 9.4% to 9.5% and that 225,000 jobs were lost during the month. Weaker then expected readings would be very good news for bonds and likely lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. But, if we get stronger than expected numbers, mortgage rates will probably spike higher tomorrow.
I suspect that we will need to see weaker than expected readings for bonds to rally tomorrow. With the bond market at the higher end of its recent trading range, just matching forecasts may be a relief for stocks that could lead to selling in bonds and a rally in stocks. Accordingly proceed cautiously if still floating any interest rate and closing in the immediate future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 09/02/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early volatility in stocks and favorable economic data. The stock markets have fluctuated between positive and negative ground this morning, but the Dow and Nasdaq are both currently up a couple of points. The bond market is up 4/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
The 2nd Quarter Productivity revision was posted early this morning, showing an annual rate of 6.6%. This was a little higher than expected, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because strong levels of worker output allows the economy to grow without inflation concerns.
The second relevant report was July’s Factory Orders data. It showed a smaller than expected increase in new orders. The 1.3% increase instead of the forecasted 1.5% indicates that manufacturing activity was not as strong as expected. This is also good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets. Therefore, its impact on this morning’s trading has been minimal.
Later today, we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. It generally causes a little movement in bond prices but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow does not have any important economic news scheduled for release. The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures, but these are not considered to be of much concern to mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see little change from the previous week’s number of new claims for unemployment benefits.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early volatility in stocks and favorable economic data. The stock markets have fluctuated between positive and negative ground this morning, but the Dow and Nasdaq are both currently up a couple of points. The bond market is up 4/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
The 2nd Quarter Productivity revision was posted early this morning, showing an annual rate of 6.6%. This was a little higher than expected, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because strong levels of worker output allows the economy to grow without inflation concerns.
The second relevant report was July’s Factory Orders data. It showed a smaller than expected increase in new orders. The 1.3% increase instead of the forecasted 1.5% indicates that manufacturing activity was not as strong as expected. This is also good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets. Therefore, its impact on this morning’s trading has been minimal.
Later today, we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. It generally causes a little movement in bond prices but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow does not have any important economic news scheduled for release. The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures, but these are not considered to be of much concern to mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see little change from the previous week’s number of new claims for unemployment benefits.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 09/01/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market is in negative territory after this morning’s primary economic release showed a much stronger than expected reading. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 88 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I don’t think we will see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.
Today’s big news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who posted their manufacturing index for August late this morning. They reported a reading of 52.9 that was stronger than analysts had expected, indicating manufacturer sentiment is growing. This was the first time this index was above 50 since January 2008. That is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it points towards a strengthening economy. However, a note in the report says that manufacturers are not planning on hiring new workers anytime soon. This helps support the theory that the job market will remain weak for some time, likely preventing a rapid economic recovery. The result was a minimal impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates.
Tomorrow brings us three events for the markets to digest. The first is the revision to the 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers, which measures employee productivity in the workplace. Strong levels of productivity allow the economy to expand without inflation concerns. It is expected to show a downward change from the previous estimate of a 6.4% annual pace. Forecasts are currently calling for a reading of 6.1%. A larger than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The second relevant economic report is July’s Factory Orders data. This report measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data is expected to show a 1.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise should lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday, as long as the productivity number doesn’t hurt bond prices.
The third and final event tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. It generally causes a little movement in bond prices but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Tuesday’s bond market is in negative territory after this morning’s primary economic release showed a much stronger than expected reading. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 88 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I don’t think we will see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.
Today’s big news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who posted their manufacturing index for August late this morning. They reported a reading of 52.9 that was stronger than analysts had expected, indicating manufacturer sentiment is growing. This was the first time this index was above 50 since January 2008. That is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it points towards a strengthening economy. However, a note in the report says that manufacturers are not planning on hiring new workers anytime soon. This helps support the theory that the job market will remain weak for some time, likely preventing a rapid economic recovery. The result was a minimal impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates.
Tomorrow brings us three events for the markets to digest. The first is the revision to the 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers, which measures employee productivity in the workplace. Strong levels of productivity allow the economy to expand without inflation concerns. It is expected to show a downward change from the previous estimate of a 6.4% annual pace. Forecasts are currently calling for a reading of 6.1%. A larger than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The second relevant economic report is July’s Factory Orders data. This report measures manufacturing sector strength and is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, but includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data is expected to show a 1.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise should lead to lower mortgage rates Wednesday, as long as the productivity number doesn’t hurt bond prices.
The third and final event tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be. But this is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. It generally causes a little movement in bond prices but not enough to significantly affect mortgage pricing.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
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