Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/30/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, unable to extend Friday’s rally. The stock markets are relatively calm with the Dow up a few points and the Nasdaq down a few points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which may minimize the expected improvements in this morning’s mortgage rates. However, I am still expecting to see a small improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Wednesday’s pricing.

There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week, with data scheduled for release each day except today. The fact that the bond market was unable to follow-thru on Friday’s rally concerns me that we may have some resistance in breaking current levels in the bond market. That shifts the risk versus reward calculations for locking or floating a rate, at least short-term. This doesn’t necessarily mean that I feel rates will move higher in the immediate future. It simply means that the risk of floating a rate outweighs the potential gain of doing so. With little possible reward, why take the risk?

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for November late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 55.7. A weaker reading than the expected 54.8 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Overall, the most important day this week is Friday with monthly employment figures being released, but we may also see sizable movement in rates tomorrow. If Friday’s Employment report reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher that morning, possibly erasing any gains during the week. It will probably be the key to rates moving lower or higher for the week. I suspect it will be a fairly active week for the markets and mortgage pricing, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary the week ahead

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. There are relevant reports scheduled for release every day except for tomorrow, meaning it likely will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates. Even though there is no relevant data being posted tomorrow, we will still likely see a change in mortgage rates due to Friday’s market movements that came as a result of news from overseas-particularly Dubai. Many lenders were closed or on a skeleton staff Friday, so we should see those improvements reflected in tomorrow’s rates.

November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will kick off the week’s data at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 55.7. A weaker reading than the expected 54.8 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Wednesday’s only relevant data is the Fed Beige Book release at 2:00 PM ET. This report, which is simply named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Thursday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 8.6%, down from the previous estimate of 9.5%.

The Labor Department will post November’s Employment report early Friday morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate of 10.2%, payrolls down approximately 114,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 10.2%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings reading.

Also scheduled for release Friday is October’s Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release by giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, except this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but there is little chance of it impacting mortgage rates this Friday because the Employment report is an extremely important report. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in new orders of approximately 0.1%.

Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see sizable movement in rates Tuesday. Friday’s data could cause a significant change in rates. If it reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher Friday morning, possibly erasing any gains from the week. It will probably be the key to rates moving lower or higher for the week. But we do have approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point improvement waiting for us in tomorrow morning’s rates, unless something unexpected happens during early trading tomorrow. However, I suspect it will be a fairly active week for the markets and mortgage pricing, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/27/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due significant selling on stocks during early trading. The stock markets are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 152 points and the Nasdaq down 35 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, but I am expecting to see little change in mortgage rates since many lenders are closed or will reflect today’s news in Monday’s pricing.

Despite the current losses in stocks, the Dow and Nasdaq are both well off earlier lows. The Dow had fallen as much as 233 points while the Nasdaq was down by as much as 62 points. This morning’s weakness in stocks came from overseas news that Dubai may not be able to pay debt payments that are coming due. This has rattled several international markets as it brought back fears about economic stability.

The selling in stocks has helped boost bond prices this morning as investors seek safe-haven from the volatility. But this may be just a knee-jerk reaction and short-lived as we have already seen the major stock indexes recover a good portion of earlier losses. Therefore, I would not consider this to be a breakthrough morning for bonds or mortgage rates. With many traders at home for the holiday weekend, the early reaction to the news may be more a result of thin trading than the significance that the news will actually have on our economy and markets. In other words, lets wait until Monday’s full day of trading to see just how much of an impact this will have on our markets and mortgage pricing.

Wednesday’s 7-year Note auction went pretty well, meaning there still is an appetite for U.S. debt. This is needed if we want mortgage rates to fall below current levels. The 10-year Note sale, which is a better indication of investor interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds, will be held the week after next. That sale will give us an important measurement of appetite for mortgage-related debt that could push mortgage rates noticeably lower than current levels.

The stock markets will close at 1:00 PM ET today while the bond market will close at 2:00 PM. With many lenders closed today or on a skeleton staff, I don’t think we will see much change in mortgage rates despite today’s market volatility. However, we can expect a downward change in Monday’s morning pricing if the markets hold current levels.

Next brings us the release of several important economic reports. There is relevant data being posted each day except Monday. Some of the key reports are the ISM Manufacturing index and November’s Employment report. Look for more details on next week’s event in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate commentary 11-25-09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!


Wednesday’s bond market has opened has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we still should see an improvement of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The first of today’s four relevant reports was October’s Durable Goods Orders that showed a 0.6% decline in new orders for big-ticket items. This was much lower than the 0.5% that was expected, but this particular report is known to show quite a bit of volatility from month-to-month. So a wide variance does not necessarily mean a big change to mortgage rates, but this morning’s news can be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage pricing.

The second report of the day was October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. It revealed a 0.2% rise in income that was expected, but a 0.7% increase in spending that exceeded forecasts. That means consumers spent more than many had thought, increasing the possibility of economic growth. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because an expanding economy usually raises inflation concerns and makes mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 67.4. This was slightly higher than expected, meaning consumers felt better about their own financial situations than many had thought. That can be considered bad news for bonds, however, this was not enough of a variance to affect mortgage rates.

The final report of the day was October’s New Home Sales. It showed that sales of newly constructed homes rose 6.2% last month, greatly exceeding forecasts. As with Monday’s Existing Home Sales report, this data indicates that the housing sector is strengthening at a quicker pace than many had thought. That is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a recovering housing sector makes a broader economic recovery more likely.

Also worth noting was a surprise drop in new claims for unemployment benefits filed last week. The Labor Department said that 466,000 new claims were filed last week, falling well below forecasts and their lowest total since September of last year. Fortunately this data is not considered to be highly important, but its results did somewhat influence the stock markets and bond trading this morning.

Yesterday’s 5-year Note auction went very well, raising optimism about today’s 7-year Note sale. As with yesterday’s auction, results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise again during afternoon hours, possibly leading to improvements in mortgage rates. But a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

The FOMC minutes that were released yesterday afternoon didn’t really give us any surprising news, but did appear to be more optimistic about the economy than during previous meetings. The Fed raised their estimates for next year for overall economic activity (GDP reading) and lowered predictions for the unemployment rate. This means that they think economic activity will be better than previously thought and that unemployment will not be as bad as previously estimated. Those can be considered negative points for bonds and mortgage rates, but the strength of the 5-year Note auction yesterday prevented bonds from reacting negatively.

The financial markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close today, but they will close early Friday afternoon and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home and there is no relevant economic news scheduled for release. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/24/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened fairly flat after this morning’s economic data gave us mixed results. The stock markets are giving back some of yesterday’s gains with the Dow down 36 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision revealed a downward revision, as expected. It revealed a 2.8% annual rate of growth during the third quarter that nearly matched forecasts. This means that the economy did not grow as much during the 3rd quarter than previously thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since the 2.8% increase was nearly what analysts had predicted, the impact on this morning’s trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted late this morning, showing a reading of 49.5. This was higher than forecasts were calling for, indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is considered negative news for bonds because rising confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, effectively fueling economic growth.

We have two more events to watch for later today. The first are the results of the 5-year Note auction being held today. They will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall this afternoon. But a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

The FOMC minutes may be a major mover of the markets or a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures and overly optimistic about economic growth, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher after they are released at 2:00 PM ET.

There are four reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.2% and that spending increases 0.5%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision of 1.0 to the preliminary reading of 66.0. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading of 67.0, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow.

October’s New Home Sales is the last report, but it is the least important. I don’t think this data will influence mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the rest of the day’s news matches forecasts. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales of newly constructed homes.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/23/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic data and a sizable rally in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week with strong gains with the Dow up 149 points and the Nasdaq up 36 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I am not expecting to see much change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

The National Association of Realtors reported late this morning that sales of existing homes rose over 10% last month, greatly exceeding analysts’ forecasts. This fuels the theory that the housing sector is strengthening, which is thought by many to be needed for a broader economic recovery. Therefore, this data can be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this was one of the week’s least important reports so its impact on rates has been minimal.

Tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of expansion. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.9%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a smaller than expected reading for this report to improve mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be released tomorrow morning, but during late morning trading. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see little change from last month’s 47.7 reading, meaning consumer were just as concerned about their own financial situations as they were last month. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

Also worth noting about tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the 5-year Treasury Note auction. Both are afternoon events and both have the potential to heavily influence the bond market or be a non-factor. The results of auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall during afternoon hours. But a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

The FOMC minutes may be a major mover of the markets or a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures and overly optimistic about economic growth, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher tomorrow afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market, particularly the first half. Friday will be the least important day of the week and either tomorrow or Wednesday will be the most important. I expect to see plenty of movement in rates the first couple of days, possibly afternoon revisions also, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary- The week ahead

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. All of the week’s data is being posted over just three days, so the first part of the week should be interesting for mortgage shoppers.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late tomorrow morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results. They both are expected to show increases in sales, indicating that the housing sector may be strengthening.

The first important data comes early Tuesday morning when the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of expansion. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.9%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a smaller than expected reading for this report to improve mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released by the Conference Board late Tuesday morning. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see little change from last month’s 47.7 reading, meaning consumer were just as concerned about their own financial situations as they were last month. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.2% and that spending increases 0.5%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to the preliminary reading of 66.0. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

October’s New Home Sales is the last report, but it is the least important. I don’t think this data will influence mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the rest of the day’s news matches forecasts.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but they will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market, particularly the first half. Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. I expect to see plenty of movement in rates the first couple of days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com