Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This week’s FOMC meeting adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates. The post meeting statement indicated that the economy was still weakening, but at a slower rate than their last update. They also said that inflation “remained subdued”, which is good news for bonds. There was little reference to the Fed’s next move regarding buying Treasury debt.
However, the slowing contraction in the economy led to stock gains that caused bonds to sell. The Dow ended the day higher 168 points while the Nasdaq closed up 38 points. The major stock indexes actually spiked higher before falling before closing. At one point the Dow was up 240 points while the Nasdaq reached a high of up 53 points. The bond market closed down 25/32, which could lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, many lenders may opt to wait until tomorrow’s data is posted before reflecting that change.
This morning’s major economic news was the release of the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. Today’s release revealed that activity fell at an annual rate of 6.1% during the first three months of the year. This was much weaker than the 4.7% decline that was expected and shows that the economy was slowing quicker than thought. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity eases inflation concerns and makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.
Tomorrow brings us the release of two important reports in addition to weekly unemployment figures. The first is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.5%.
March’s Personal Income & Outlays is the second of two reports due to be posted tomorrow morning. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market due to the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases. This raises the likelihood of increased economic activity and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% decline in income and a 0.1% drop in spending. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds for both portions of the report.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage interest rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory -4/28/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning’s only relevant economic data revealed a much stronger than expected reading. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 21 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but we still should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.
The Conference Board reported late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April jumped to 39.2. This is a six-month high for the index and a much stronger reading than the 28.8 that was expected. That indicates that consumers were much more optimistic about their own personal financial situations than many had thought. The negative impact on bonds comes from the belief that higher levels of confidence makes it much more likely that consumers will make larger purchases in the near future. And since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered important and can influence bond trading.
Tomorrow is going to be a pretty interesting day. We have the possibility of seeing plenty of volatility in the markets and therefore, mortgage rates also. The first event is the release of the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in output at an annual rate of 4.9%. A larger decline would be ideal for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning.
This week’s FOMC meeting begins today and will adjourn tomorrow afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.
With the preliminary version of the GDP being released during morning trading and the FOMC meeting adjourning during afternoon hours, there is a decent possibility of the markets changing directions more than once tomorrow. Accordingly, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
* Please note that if you have a mortgage interest rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning’s only relevant economic data revealed a much stronger than expected reading. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 21 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but we still should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.
The Conference Board reported late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April jumped to 39.2. This is a six-month high for the index and a much stronger reading than the 28.8 that was expected. That indicates that consumers were much more optimistic about their own personal financial situations than many had thought. The negative impact on bonds comes from the belief that higher levels of confidence makes it much more likely that consumers will make larger purchases in the near future. And since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered important and can influence bond trading.
Tomorrow is going to be a pretty interesting day. We have the possibility of seeing plenty of volatility in the markets and therefore, mortgage rates also. The first event is the release of the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in output at an annual rate of 4.9%. A larger decline would be ideal for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning.
This week’s FOMC meeting begins today and will adjourn tomorrow afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.
With the preliminary version of the GDP being released during morning trading and the FOMC meeting adjourning during afternoon hours, there is a decent possibility of the markets changing directions more than once tomorrow. Accordingly, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
* Please note that if you have a mortgage interest rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory- 04/27/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 64 points while the Nasdaq has lost 15 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but I am not expecting to see much a change in this morning’s mortgage rates.
The first of this week’s seven relevant economic reports comes late tomorrow morning when the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April will be released. This Conference Board index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and investments, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation concerns to a minimum. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 28.8, which would be an increase from March’s 26.0 reading.
Wednesday brings us the release of a very important report along with the FOMC meeting results. The report is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Wednesday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in output at an annual rate of 4.9%. A larger decline would be ideal for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.
This week’s FOMC meeting will begin on Tuesday but will not adjourn until Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the GDP being posted along with the FOMC adjournment, but we may see noticeable changes to rates tomorrow and Friday also. If this week’s reports reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond market should rally and mortgage rates should fall significantly for the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 64 points while the Nasdaq has lost 15 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but I am not expecting to see much a change in this morning’s mortgage rates.
The first of this week’s seven relevant economic reports comes late tomorrow morning when the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April will be released. This Conference Board index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and investments, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation concerns to a minimum. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 28.8, which would be an increase from March’s 26.0 reading.
Wednesday brings us the release of a very important report along with the FOMC meeting results. The report is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Wednesday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in output at an annual rate of 4.9%. A larger decline would be ideal for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.
This week’s FOMC meeting will begin on Tuesday but will not adjourn until Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the GDP being posted along with the FOMC adjournment, but we may see noticeable changes to rates tomorrow and Friday also. If this week’s reports reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond market should rally and mortgage rates should fall significantly for the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Mortgage Rate Advisory
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This week is packed with relevant economic news in addition to another FOMC meeting. All seven of the reports are considered to be at least moderately important while several are considered very important to the markets and mortgage rates. This makes it likely that we will see plenty of movement in mortgage pricing over the next several days.
The first report comes late Tuesday morning when the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April will be released. This Conference Board index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and investments, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation concerns to a minimum. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 28.8, which would be an increase from March’s 26.0 reading.
Wednesday brings us the release of a very important report along with the FOMC meeting results. The report is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Wednesday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in output at an annual rate of 4.9%. A larger decline would be ideal for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.
This week’s FOMC meeting will begin on Tuesday but will not adjourn until Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.
The next report of the week is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) Thursday morning, which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.5%.
March’s Personal Income & Outlays is the second of two reports due to be posted Thursday morning. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market due to the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% decline in income and a 0.1% drop in spending. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds for both portions of the report.
There are three reports scheduled for release late Friday morning. The first is the University of Michigan’s update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don’t expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts Current forecasts are calling for a small downward revision to 61.5.
The second is March’s Factory Orders data at 10:00AM. This is a fairly important release because it measures manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a larger decline than the 0.7% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower, while a smaller drop will likely lead to higher rates. But, the third report of the morning is the most important and will likely be the biggest influence on bond trading Friday.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index late Friday morning. This is one of the first important economic reports released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing activity and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. But, if we see a drop from last month’s reading of 36.3, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will probably fall. It is expected to show a reading of 38.0.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the GDP being posted along with the FOMC adjournment, but we may see noticeable changes to rates Friday also. If this week’s reports reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond market should rally and mortgage rates should fall significantly for the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This week is packed with relevant economic news in addition to another FOMC meeting. All seven of the reports are considered to be at least moderately important while several are considered very important to the markets and mortgage rates. This makes it likely that we will see plenty of movement in mortgage pricing over the next several days.
The first report comes late Tuesday morning when the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April will be released. This Conference Board index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and investments, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation concerns to a minimum. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 28.8, which would be an increase from March’s 26.0 reading.
Wednesday brings us the release of a very important report along with the FOMC meeting results. The report is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Wednesday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in output at an annual rate of 4.9%. A larger decline would be ideal for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.
This week’s FOMC meeting will begin on Tuesday but will not adjourn until Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.
The next report of the week is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) Thursday morning, which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.5%.
March’s Personal Income & Outlays is the second of two reports due to be posted Thursday morning. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market due to the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% decline in income and a 0.1% drop in spending. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds for both portions of the report.
There are three reports scheduled for release late Friday morning. The first is the University of Michigan’s update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don’t expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts Current forecasts are calling for a small downward revision to 61.5.
The second is March’s Factory Orders data at 10:00AM. This is a fairly important release because it measures manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a larger decline than the 0.7% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower, while a smaller drop will likely lead to higher rates. But, the third report of the morning is the most important and will likely be the biggest influence on bond trading Friday.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index late Friday morning. This is one of the first important economic reports released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing activity and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. But, if we see a drop from last month’s reading of 36.3, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will probably fall. It is expected to show a reading of 38.0.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the GDP being posted along with the FOMC adjournment, but we may see noticeable changes to rates Friday also. If this week’s reports reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond market should rally and mortgage rates should fall significantly for the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat after this morning’s economic news failed to give us any significant surprises. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 23 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we still will likely see an improvement of .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.
The Labor Department reported this morning that 640,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This nearly matched forecasts so has had little impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates.
The second report released this morning came from the National Association of Realtors who said that home resales fell 3% last month. This was a larger decline than expected and indicates that the housing sector is not ready to rebound yet. This is good news for bonds, but this data is not considered to be a highly important piece of data. Therefore, its results also have not heavily influenced this morning’s mortgage rates.
March's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.5%. This would be a sign of manufacturing sector weakness that would be good news for bonds, especially if the report shows a larger than expected decline. A stronger level of new orders could lead to stock strength and weakness in bonds, translating into higher mortgage rates tomorrow.
The last report of the week will be March’s New Home Sales data but it is the least important release of the week. It tracks approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S., so its impact on bonds will likely be less than today’s report that covered the other 85% of home sales. It is expected to show little change in sales from February’s levels.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat after this morning’s economic news failed to give us any significant surprises. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 23 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we still will likely see an improvement of .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.
The Labor Department reported this morning that 640,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This nearly matched forecasts so has had little impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates.
The second report released this morning came from the National Association of Realtors who said that home resales fell 3% last month. This was a larger decline than expected and indicates that the housing sector is not ready to rebound yet. This is good news for bonds, but this data is not considered to be a highly important piece of data. Therefore, its results also have not heavily influenced this morning’s mortgage rates.
March's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.5%. This would be a sign of manufacturing sector weakness that would be good news for bonds, especially if the report shows a larger than expected decline. A stronger level of new orders could lead to stock strength and weakness in bonds, translating into higher mortgage rates tomorrow.
The last report of the week will be March’s New Home Sales data but it is the least important release of the week. It tracks approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S., so its impact on bonds will likely be less than today’s report that covered the other 85% of home sales. It is expected to show little change in sales from February’s levels.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with no relevant economic news and early stock gains making bonds less attractive. The Dow is currently up 60 points while the Nasdaq has gained 28 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which should equate to an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release again today, so look for any movement in bond prices and mortgage rates to come as a result of a swing in stock prices. Yesterday’s afternoon weakness in bonds was not a complete surprise and we may have more of it today. Accordingly, this may be a good time to lock a rate if closing in the immediate future.
We do have some relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show a drop from February’s sales, but this data is not considered highly important. It can however, influence trading and lead to slight changes in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts.
Also tomorrow is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to show that 639,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s total. The higher the number of claims, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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Star Mortgage - Administrative Offices - West Bridgewater, MA 02379
Office Phone: (800) 941-5616 Fax: (508) 941-6788 Cell Phone: (800) 984-3523
Massachusetts Mortgage Loans
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with no relevant economic news and early stock gains making bonds less attractive. The Dow is currently up 60 points while the Nasdaq has gained 28 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which should equate to an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release again today, so look for any movement in bond prices and mortgage rates to come as a result of a swing in stock prices. Yesterday’s afternoon weakness in bonds was not a complete surprise and we may have more of it today. Accordingly, this may be a good time to lock a rate if closing in the immediate future.
We do have some relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show a drop from February’s sales, but this data is not considered highly important. It can however, influence trading and lead to slight changes in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts.
Also tomorrow is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to show that 639,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s total. The higher the number of claims, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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Star Mortgage - Administrative Offices - West Bridgewater, MA 02379
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Massachusetts Mortgage Loans
Friday, April 10, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Thursday Apr. 9th
Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength. The stock markets are rallying this morning with the Dow up 192 points and the Nasdaq up 48 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today's only monthly economic data was February's Goods and Service Trade Balance. It showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell to $26.0 billion in February. This was much lower than expected and was its lowest level since 1999. Unfortunately, this data isn't considered to be highly important to mortgage rates directly. In fact, the news has had little impact on trading despite the wide variance between forecasts and the actual reading. However, news like this can strengthen the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, making U.S. securities more appealing to international investors. This is because a stronger dollar makes the securities more valuable when sold and their proceeds are converted to the investors' own currency.
The Labor Department reported that 654,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was close to forecasts and also has had little influence on this morning's bond trading or mortgage rates.
Yesterday's FOMC minutes basically gave the bond market good news but consumers and businesses bad news. The minutes showed that during the last meeting the Fed revised their outlook for the economy and recovery to a worse position. They extended out their estimate of when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the most important benchmark of economic activity, will stabilize. They also renewed concerns about deflation, meaning that inflation is not an immediate concern. Overall, the minutes didn't reveal any major surprises, but did support the theory that the economy is worse than many, including the Fed, had previously thought. Generally speaking, weak economic conditions usually create a favorable environment for bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.
Today's 10-year Treasury auction's results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we may see bond prices improve and mortgage rates revise lower during the last hour of trading. The bond market will close today at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow's Good Friday holiday. The markets will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours. Most lenders will be closed tomorrow also, but if any are working they will likely keep today's afternoon rates until Monday morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Disclaimer: If you have a Massachusetts Mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may choose to lock your rate. Most lenders have a re-negotiation policy. Call me to review your scenario. Refinance to a low rate fixed rate mortgage in Massachusetts.
Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength. The stock markets are rallying this morning with the Dow up 192 points and the Nasdaq up 48 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today's only monthly economic data was February's Goods and Service Trade Balance. It showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell to $26.0 billion in February. This was much lower than expected and was its lowest level since 1999. Unfortunately, this data isn't considered to be highly important to mortgage rates directly. In fact, the news has had little impact on trading despite the wide variance between forecasts and the actual reading. However, news like this can strengthen the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, making U.S. securities more appealing to international investors. This is because a stronger dollar makes the securities more valuable when sold and their proceeds are converted to the investors' own currency.
The Labor Department reported that 654,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was close to forecasts and also has had little influence on this morning's bond trading or mortgage rates.
Yesterday's FOMC minutes basically gave the bond market good news but consumers and businesses bad news. The minutes showed that during the last meeting the Fed revised their outlook for the economy and recovery to a worse position. They extended out their estimate of when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the most important benchmark of economic activity, will stabilize. They also renewed concerns about deflation, meaning that inflation is not an immediate concern. Overall, the minutes didn't reveal any major surprises, but did support the theory that the economy is worse than many, including the Fed, had previously thought. Generally speaking, weak economic conditions usually create a favorable environment for bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.
Today's 10-year Treasury auction's results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we may see bond prices improve and mortgage rates revise lower during the last hour of trading. The bond market will close today at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow's Good Friday holiday. The markets will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours. Most lenders will be closed tomorrow also, but if any are working they will likely keep today's afternoon rates until Monday morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Disclaimer: If you have a Massachusetts Mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may choose to lock your rate. Most lenders have a re-negotiation policy. Call me to review your scenario. Refinance to a low rate fixed rate mortgage in Massachusetts.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Monday Apr. 6th
Monday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since given back those gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off in negative territory with the Dow down 125 points and the Nasdaq down 36 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates.
This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of little relevant economic data for the markets to digest. There is only one monthly or quarterly economic report on the calendar for this week and it is one of the least important reports regularly posted. We will, however, see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and have a couple of Treasury auctions to watch.
There is no relevant news scheduled to be posted until Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants will be looking at these minutes closely. They give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Wednesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.
The two Treasury auctions are scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale Tuesday and a regular 10-year Note sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing tomorrow and/or Thursday afternoon.
Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. The same goes for Thursday's auction (Tomorrow's sale will probably have less influence on the markets than Thursday's). In addition, the bond market will close early Thursday and remain closed until Monday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. This could lead to some additional volatility as traders look to protect themselves over the long weekend.
In other words, we may have a very calm week ahead of us, or we may see rates move noticeably several days. With no important economic data to drive trading and mortgage rates, bonds may move with stocks. This means large stock gains could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. But stock weakness could lead to mortgage pricing improving for the week. Regardless, a lack of economic data is not reason to let our guard down if still floating an interest rate. Watch the market closely and proceed cautiously if not locked yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Massachusetts borrowers- Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details and discuss your home loan and refinance needs
Monday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since given back those gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off in negative territory with the Dow down 125 points and the Nasdaq down 36 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates.
This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of little relevant economic data for the markets to digest. There is only one monthly or quarterly economic report on the calendar for this week and it is one of the least important reports regularly posted. We will, however, see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and have a couple of Treasury auctions to watch.
There is no relevant news scheduled to be posted until Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants will be looking at these minutes closely. They give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Wednesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.
The two Treasury auctions are scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday. There is a 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale Tuesday and a regular 10-year Note sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing tomorrow and/or Thursday afternoon.
Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. The same goes for Thursday's auction (Tomorrow's sale will probably have less influence on the markets than Thursday's). In addition, the bond market will close early Thursday and remain closed until Monday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. This could lead to some additional volatility as traders look to protect themselves over the long weekend.
In other words, we may have a very calm week ahead of us, or we may see rates move noticeably several days. With no important economic data to drive trading and mortgage rates, bonds may move with stocks. This means large stock gains could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. But stock weakness could lead to mortgage pricing improving for the week. Regardless, a lack of economic data is not reason to let our guard down if still floating an interest rate. Watch the market closely and proceed cautiously if not locked yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Massachusetts borrowers- Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details and discuss your home loan and refinance needs
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Apr. 3rd
Friday's bond market is in negative territory again despite news of a 25-year high unemployment rate. The stock markets are also showing losses with the Dow down 52 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, but we will still see an improvement of approximately .125 in this morning's mortgage rates as a result of strength late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see an upward revision to rates later today if the bond market remain near current levels or fall further.
The Labor Department announced this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 8.5% last month, its highest level since November 1983. The payroll reading of today's report showed similar results with 663,000 jobs lost during the month. That figure put us above 2 million jobs lost so far this year. To put that figure in perspective, if the year ended last week, this would have been the fourth worst year on record in job losses. Unfortunately, we still have three quarters of the year to go.
The bad news for bonds is that this morning's figures nearly matched forecasts. The lack of weaker than expected figures has made bonds less appealing this morning. At least we did not get stronger than expected numbers or we may have seen a sizable bond sell-off. Still, I think there is a pretty good possibility of getting an upward revision to rates sometime today unless bonds can rebound.
Next week is very light in terms of economic data, therefore, there is little news to drive bond prices higher or mortgage rates lower. If the stock markets retreat, bonds may come into favor with traders, but without something to fuel bond buying I don't think we can see much of an improvement in mortgage rates. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday's bond market is in negative territory again despite news of a 25-year high unemployment rate. The stock markets are also showing losses with the Dow down 52 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, but we will still see an improvement of approximately .125 in this morning's mortgage rates as a result of strength late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see an upward revision to rates later today if the bond market remain near current levels or fall further.
The Labor Department announced this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 8.5% last month, its highest level since November 1983. The payroll reading of today's report showed similar results with 663,000 jobs lost during the month. That figure put us above 2 million jobs lost so far this year. To put that figure in perspective, if the year ended last week, this would have been the fourth worst year on record in job losses. Unfortunately, we still have three quarters of the year to go.
The bad news for bonds is that this morning's figures nearly matched forecasts. The lack of weaker than expected figures has made bonds less appealing this morning. At least we did not get stronger than expected numbers or we may have seen a sizable bond sell-off. Still, I think there is a pretty good possibility of getting an upward revision to rates sometime today unless bonds can rebound.
Next week is very light in terms of economic data, therefore, there is little news to drive bond prices higher or mortgage rates lower. If the stock markets retreat, bonds may come into favor with traders, but without something to fuel bond buying I don't think we can see much of an improvement in mortgage rates. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, April 3, 2009
New LOW for Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates
Mortgage products tracked by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey hit new interest rate lows this week. For the 30-year it was the fourth time in 2009 a new record has been established.
The survey covering the week ended April 2 reported the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 4.78 percent compared to the previous record low set last week of 4.85 percent. Fees and points were unchanged at 0.7 point. Freddie Mac has been tracking the 30-year FRM since 1971.
The 15-year FRM dropped to 4.52 percent with 0.7 point. Last week the rate set a historical low at 4.58 percent with 0.7 point. This weeks rate is exactly 1 percent lower than it was during the same week in 2008 and the lowest level reached by the 15-year since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 1991.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged a record 4.96 percent also with 0.7 point. The 5-year ARM has never been lower in the life of Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which dates back to 2005 for this product.
Lock in a new Refinance Mortgage with a fixed rate Massachusetts Mortgage Loan.
The survey covering the week ended April 2 reported the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was 4.78 percent compared to the previous record low set last week of 4.85 percent. Fees and points were unchanged at 0.7 point. Freddie Mac has been tracking the 30-year FRM since 1971.
The 15-year FRM dropped to 4.52 percent with 0.7 point. Last week the rate set a historical low at 4.58 percent with 0.7 point. This weeks rate is exactly 1 percent lower than it was during the same week in 2008 and the lowest level reached by the 15-year since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 1991.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged a record 4.96 percent also with 0.7 point. The 5-year ARM has never been lower in the life of Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which dates back to 2005 for this product.
Lock in a new Refinance Mortgage with a fixed rate Massachusetts Mortgage Loan.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday Apr. 1st
Wednesday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data failed to move the markets. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said late this morning that their manufacturing index rose from 35.8 in February to 36.3 in March. This means that manufacturer sentiment rose slightly more than what analysts had expected. However, the difference was not sufficient enough to really hurt mortgage rates this morning.
Tomorrow morning we will see February's Factory Orders data. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength, but is considered moderately important. It is expected to show a 1.4% rise in new orders according to new forecasts. A smaller increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger rise could push mortgage pricing slightly higher tomorrow.
The Labor Department will be giving us weekly unemployment figures tomorrow morning. These weekly figures usually have little influence on rates, but with Friday's big monthly employment report the following day, tomorrow's numbers may influence trading if they vary much from forecasts. I don't expect this release to create a significant movement in the markets or rates, but may influence them slightly more than usual. Analysts are predicting that 650,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data failed to move the markets. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said late this morning that their manufacturing index rose from 35.8 in February to 36.3 in March. This means that manufacturer sentiment rose slightly more than what analysts had expected. However, the difference was not sufficient enough to really hurt mortgage rates this morning.
Tomorrow morning we will see February's Factory Orders data. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength, but is considered moderately important. It is expected to show a 1.4% rise in new orders according to new forecasts. A smaller increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger rise could push mortgage pricing slightly higher tomorrow.
The Labor Department will be giving us weekly unemployment figures tomorrow morning. These weekly figures usually have little influence on rates, but with Friday's big monthly employment report the following day, tomorrow's numbers may influence trading if they vary much from forecasts. I don't expect this release to create a significant movement in the markets or rates, but may influence them slightly more than usual. Analysts are predicting that 650,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Mortgage Market Update
Mortgage Market Commentary
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) prices have fallen sharply (rates higher) as the Fed prepares for its 4th outright purchase of Treasuries as part of its effort to lower borrowing costs and stronger than expected economic reports are released; FNMA 4.0% coupon 100.59bps, -13bps and the low of the day. The effort to lower mortgage rates hasn't yet ignited home buying but it has definitely caused a surge in refinancing (+3.7% % 79% of all applications), meaning fewer foreclosures and less homes weighing on supply. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell back for a second straight month to 150k in March vs 185k in February and down from January's peak of 242k. ADP Employer Services gauge drop of minus 742k workers was larger than expected, pointing to no relief in sight for labor market. ISM Mfg Index edged higher in February to a level only modestly above December's record low, indicating little improvement in the near term. Construction Spending fell again, but not as much as expected in February, with weakness in private residential outlays. Pending Home Sales rose 2.1% from a record low as buyers took advantage of deeply discounted prices and low interest rates pointing to momentum for the housing sector going into the key months of April and May.
Massachusetts Mortgage Rates at 52 year Lows! Lock in a low fixed rate Refinance Mortgage Loan.
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) prices have fallen sharply (rates higher) as the Fed prepares for its 4th outright purchase of Treasuries as part of its effort to lower borrowing costs and stronger than expected economic reports are released; FNMA 4.0% coupon 100.59bps, -13bps and the low of the day. The effort to lower mortgage rates hasn't yet ignited home buying but it has definitely caused a surge in refinancing (+3.7% % 79% of all applications), meaning fewer foreclosures and less homes weighing on supply. Challenger Job-Cut Report announced layoffs fell back for a second straight month to 150k in March vs 185k in February and down from January's peak of 242k. ADP Employer Services gauge drop of minus 742k workers was larger than expected, pointing to no relief in sight for labor market. ISM Mfg Index edged higher in February to a level only modestly above December's record low, indicating little improvement in the near term. Construction Spending fell again, but not as much as expected in February, with weakness in private residential outlays. Pending Home Sales rose 2.1% from a record low as buyers took advantage of deeply discounted prices and low interest rates pointing to momentum for the housing sector going into the key months of April and May.
Massachusetts Mortgage Rates at 52 year Lows! Lock in a low fixed rate Refinance Mortgage Loan.
Mortgage Rate Advice
Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Mar. 31st
Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again despite early stock gains. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday's sell off with the Dow up approximately 100 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.
The Conference Board reported late this morning that March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose this month. The reading of 26.0 was a small increase from February's revised reading of 25.3, but was lower than forecasts had called for. However, the difference was not enough to affect mortgage rates.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late tomorrow morning. This important index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives. A reading below 50 means more surveyed executives felt business worsened during the month than those who said it had improved. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 36.0, which would be a slight increase from February's reading of 35.8. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained close to last month's level.
February's Factory Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is also the least important of this week's four reports. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.3% decline, I suspect that it will be a non-factor in the mortgage market, especially with Friday's Employment report being posted.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Applying for a Massachusetts Mortgage? Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again despite early stock gains. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday's sell off with the Dow up approximately 100 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.
The Conference Board reported late this morning that March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose this month. The reading of 26.0 was a small increase from February's revised reading of 25.3, but was lower than forecasts had called for. However, the difference was not enough to affect mortgage rates.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late tomorrow morning. This important index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives. A reading below 50 means more surveyed executives felt business worsened during the month than those who said it had improved. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 36.0, which would be a slight increase from February's reading of 35.8. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained close to last month's level.
February's Factory Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is also the least important of this week's four reports. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.3% decline, I suspect that it will be a non-factor in the mortgage market, especially with Friday's Employment report being posted.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Applying for a Massachusetts Mortgage? Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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