Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/30/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, unable to extend Friday’s rally. The stock markets are relatively calm with the Dow up a few points and the Nasdaq down a few points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which may minimize the expected improvements in this morning’s mortgage rates. However, I am still expecting to see a small improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Wednesday’s pricing.

There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week, with data scheduled for release each day except today. The fact that the bond market was unable to follow-thru on Friday’s rally concerns me that we may have some resistance in breaking current levels in the bond market. That shifts the risk versus reward calculations for locking or floating a rate, at least short-term. This doesn’t necessarily mean that I feel rates will move higher in the immediate future. It simply means that the risk of floating a rate outweighs the potential gain of doing so. With little possible reward, why take the risk?

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for November late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 55.7. A weaker reading than the expected 54.8 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Overall, the most important day this week is Friday with monthly employment figures being released, but we may also see sizable movement in rates tomorrow. If Friday’s Employment report reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher that morning, possibly erasing any gains during the week. It will probably be the key to rates moving lower or higher for the week. I suspect it will be a fairly active week for the markets and mortgage pricing, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary the week ahead

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. There are relevant reports scheduled for release every day except for tomorrow, meaning it likely will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates. Even though there is no relevant data being posted tomorrow, we will still likely see a change in mortgage rates due to Friday’s market movements that came as a result of news from overseas-particularly Dubai. Many lenders were closed or on a skeleton staff Friday, so we should see those improvements reflected in tomorrow’s rates.

November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will kick off the week’s data at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 55.7. A weaker reading than the expected 54.8 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Wednesday’s only relevant data is the Fed Beige Book release at 2:00 PM ET. This report, which is simply named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Thursday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 8.6%, down from the previous estimate of 9.5%.

The Labor Department will post November’s Employment report early Friday morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate of 10.2%, payrolls down approximately 114,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 10.2%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings reading.

Also scheduled for release Friday is October’s Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release by giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, except this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but there is little chance of it impacting mortgage rates this Friday because the Employment report is an extremely important report. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in new orders of approximately 0.1%.

Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see sizable movement in rates Tuesday. Friday’s data could cause a significant change in rates. If it reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher Friday morning, possibly erasing any gains from the week. It will probably be the key to rates moving lower or higher for the week. But we do have approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point improvement waiting for us in tomorrow morning’s rates, unless something unexpected happens during early trading tomorrow. However, I suspect it will be a fairly active week for the markets and mortgage pricing, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/27/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due significant selling on stocks during early trading. The stock markets are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 152 points and the Nasdaq down 35 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, but I am expecting to see little change in mortgage rates since many lenders are closed or will reflect today’s news in Monday’s pricing.

Despite the current losses in stocks, the Dow and Nasdaq are both well off earlier lows. The Dow had fallen as much as 233 points while the Nasdaq was down by as much as 62 points. This morning’s weakness in stocks came from overseas news that Dubai may not be able to pay debt payments that are coming due. This has rattled several international markets as it brought back fears about economic stability.

The selling in stocks has helped boost bond prices this morning as investors seek safe-haven from the volatility. But this may be just a knee-jerk reaction and short-lived as we have already seen the major stock indexes recover a good portion of earlier losses. Therefore, I would not consider this to be a breakthrough morning for bonds or mortgage rates. With many traders at home for the holiday weekend, the early reaction to the news may be more a result of thin trading than the significance that the news will actually have on our economy and markets. In other words, lets wait until Monday’s full day of trading to see just how much of an impact this will have on our markets and mortgage pricing.

Wednesday’s 7-year Note auction went pretty well, meaning there still is an appetite for U.S. debt. This is needed if we want mortgage rates to fall below current levels. The 10-year Note sale, which is a better indication of investor interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds, will be held the week after next. That sale will give us an important measurement of appetite for mortgage-related debt that could push mortgage rates noticeably lower than current levels.

The stock markets will close at 1:00 PM ET today while the bond market will close at 2:00 PM. With many lenders closed today or on a skeleton staff, I don’t think we will see much change in mortgage rates despite today’s market volatility. However, we can expect a downward change in Monday’s morning pricing if the markets hold current levels.

Next brings us the release of several important economic reports. There is relevant data being posted each day except Monday. Some of the key reports are the ISM Manufacturing index and November’s Employment report. Look for more details on next week’s event in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate commentary 11-25-09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!


Wednesday’s bond market has opened has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we still should see an improvement of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The first of today’s four relevant reports was October’s Durable Goods Orders that showed a 0.6% decline in new orders for big-ticket items. This was much lower than the 0.5% that was expected, but this particular report is known to show quite a bit of volatility from month-to-month. So a wide variance does not necessarily mean a big change to mortgage rates, but this morning’s news can be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage pricing.

The second report of the day was October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. It revealed a 0.2% rise in income that was expected, but a 0.7% increase in spending that exceeded forecasts. That means consumers spent more than many had thought, increasing the possibility of economic growth. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because an expanding economy usually raises inflation concerns and makes mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 67.4. This was slightly higher than expected, meaning consumers felt better about their own financial situations than many had thought. That can be considered bad news for bonds, however, this was not enough of a variance to affect mortgage rates.

The final report of the day was October’s New Home Sales. It showed that sales of newly constructed homes rose 6.2% last month, greatly exceeding forecasts. As with Monday’s Existing Home Sales report, this data indicates that the housing sector is strengthening at a quicker pace than many had thought. That is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a recovering housing sector makes a broader economic recovery more likely.

Also worth noting was a surprise drop in new claims for unemployment benefits filed last week. The Labor Department said that 466,000 new claims were filed last week, falling well below forecasts and their lowest total since September of last year. Fortunately this data is not considered to be highly important, but its results did somewhat influence the stock markets and bond trading this morning.

Yesterday’s 5-year Note auction went very well, raising optimism about today’s 7-year Note sale. As with yesterday’s auction, results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise again during afternoon hours, possibly leading to improvements in mortgage rates. But a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

The FOMC minutes that were released yesterday afternoon didn’t really give us any surprising news, but did appear to be more optimistic about the economy than during previous meetings. The Fed raised their estimates for next year for overall economic activity (GDP reading) and lowered predictions for the unemployment rate. This means that they think economic activity will be better than previously thought and that unemployment will not be as bad as previously estimated. Those can be considered negative points for bonds and mortgage rates, but the strength of the 5-year Note auction yesterday prevented bonds from reacting negatively.

The financial markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close today, but they will close early Friday afternoon and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home and there is no relevant economic news scheduled for release. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/24/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened fairly flat after this morning’s economic data gave us mixed results. The stock markets are giving back some of yesterday’s gains with the Dow down 36 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision revealed a downward revision, as expected. It revealed a 2.8% annual rate of growth during the third quarter that nearly matched forecasts. This means that the economy did not grow as much during the 3rd quarter than previously thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since the 2.8% increase was nearly what analysts had predicted, the impact on this morning’s trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted late this morning, showing a reading of 49.5. This was higher than forecasts were calling for, indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is considered negative news for bonds because rising confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, effectively fueling economic growth.

We have two more events to watch for later today. The first are the results of the 5-year Note auction being held today. They will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall this afternoon. But a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

The FOMC minutes may be a major mover of the markets or a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures and overly optimistic about economic growth, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher after they are released at 2:00 PM ET.

There are four reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.2% and that spending increases 0.5%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision of 1.0 to the preliminary reading of 66.0. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading of 67.0, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow.

October’s New Home Sales is the last report, but it is the least important. I don’t think this data will influence mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the rest of the day’s news matches forecasts. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales of newly constructed homes.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/23/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic data and a sizable rally in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week with strong gains with the Dow up 149 points and the Nasdaq up 36 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I am not expecting to see much change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

The National Association of Realtors reported late this morning that sales of existing homes rose over 10% last month, greatly exceeding analysts’ forecasts. This fuels the theory that the housing sector is strengthening, which is thought by many to be needed for a broader economic recovery. Therefore, this data can be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this was one of the week’s least important reports so its impact on rates has been minimal.

Tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of expansion. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.9%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a smaller than expected reading for this report to improve mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be released tomorrow morning, but during late morning trading. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see little change from last month’s 47.7 reading, meaning consumer were just as concerned about their own financial situations as they were last month. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

Also worth noting about tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the 5-year Treasury Note auction. Both are afternoon events and both have the potential to heavily influence the bond market or be a non-factor. The results of auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall during afternoon hours. But a lackluster interest in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

The FOMC minutes may be a major mover of the markets or a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures and overly optimistic about economic growth, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher tomorrow afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market, particularly the first half. Friday will be the least important day of the week and either tomorrow or Wednesday will be the most important. I expect to see plenty of movement in rates the first couple of days, possibly afternoon revisions also, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary- The week ahead

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. All of the week’s data is being posted over just three days, so the first part of the week should be interesting for mortgage shoppers.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late tomorrow morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results. They both are expected to show increases in sales, indicating that the housing sector may be strengthening.

The first important data comes early Tuesday morning when the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of a 3.5% annual rate of expansion. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.9%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a smaller than expected reading for this report to improve mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released by the Conference Board late Tuesday morning. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see little change from last month’s 47.7 reading, meaning consumer were just as concerned about their own financial situations as they were last month. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in new orders. A smaller than expected rise would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.2% and that spending increases 0.5%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to the preliminary reading of 66.0. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

October’s New Home Sales is the last report, but it is the least important. I don’t think this data will influence mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the rest of the day’s news matches forecasts.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but they will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market, particularly the first half. Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. I expect to see plenty of movement in rates the first couple of days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

massachusetts Mortgage rate Commentary 11/20/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market opened flat with no relevant economic news being posted today. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 40 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels.

The stock markets appear prepared to close the week in negative ground. This should be good news for bonds heading into next week. Since there is no relevant data scheduled for release today, any changes to mortgage rates this afternoon will likely come from sizable move in stocks. If the major stock indexes continuer to move lower, there is a possibility of seeing downward revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon.

There are a couple of important reports scheduled for release next week. There is relevant data being posted Monday when the National Association of Realtors gives us October’s home resale figures. It is expected to show an increase in sales from September’s level, meaning the housing sector improved over the past month. However, this data is not considered to be highly important, so it will likely take a sizable variance from forecasts to cause a noticeable move in mortgage rates.

Next week is a holiday-shortened week due to Thanksgiving Day, meaning all of the week’s data will likely be released the first three days of the week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/19/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Thursday’s bond market opened in positive territory following early stock losses that have made bonds more attractive to investors. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 145 points and the Nasdaq down 44 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Conference Board posted their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late this morning, announcing a 0.3% increase. This was a little weaker than the 0.4% that was expected, but not enough of difference to influence this morning mortgage rates. That data indicates that economic activity is expected to increase moderately over the next three to six months. That is acceptable to bonds, as many economists and the Fed expect the economy to expand slowly.

The Labor Department said this morning that 505,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was very close to forecasts and also has had little impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage pricing.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Therefore, look for the stock markets to again influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates. If stocks fall further, bonds should rise, leading top downward revisions to mortgage rates tomorrow.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/17

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market opened in negative territory despite some extremely favorable economic news. The stock markets are showing relatively minor losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to yesterday’s levels.

The Labor Department gave us the first and more important of today’s two relevant economic reports. They announced that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% last month, falling short of expectations. However, the big news was the core data reading that fell 0.6% when it was expected to rise 0.1%. This means that inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy were well below what analysts had thought. That is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but it appears that the bond market was not too impressed with this morning’s news.

The second report of the morning was October's Industrial Production data. It showed that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose only 0.1% when it was expected to rise 0.4%. This is also good news for bonds because rapid increases in manufacturing activity indicates a strengthening economy.

There are again two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This index is similar to today's PPI, except it measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. The overall reading is expected to show an increase of 0.2% while the core data is expected to rise 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, while larger than forecasted increases could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s second report is October’s Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts and the CPI matches expectations. It is expected to show a small increase in starts of new homes.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/16/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market opened in positive territory despite early stock gains and mixed economic news. The stock markets are kicking the week off in positive ground with the Dow up 119 points and the Nasdaq up 27 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, which with Friday’s late gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that October’s Retail Sales rose 1.4%, exceeding forecasts of a 0.9% increase. At first look, this headline number is bad news for bonds. However, two factors prevented the bond market from selling. The first was a sizable downward revision to September’s sales that indicated consumers were spending even less than previously thought. Last month’s estimate was a decline of 1.5% in sales, but it now believed that sales fell 2.3% that month. The second piece of positive news was the reading that excludes October’s more volatile auto sales. With those transactions excluded, sales rose only 0.2%, which was weaker than the 0.4% that was expected. So, today’s report can’t really be considered favorable or negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Its impact has been fairly neutral.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is making a lunchtime speech to the Economic Club of New York today. I don’t believe that we will see too much reaction to his speech, but the possibility always exists whenever he speaks. Therefore, we should not ignore it, but if we see the markets move noticeably between noon and 12:30 PM ET, it likely is a result of something he said.

There are two reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is October's Producer Price Index (PPI) that is one of the two key inflation readings this week. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall tomorrow. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.5% in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core reading.

Tomorrow’s second report is October's Industrial Production data. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.4% increase in production. Stronger levels of production would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is not as important as the PPI readings are.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary- the week ahead

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

This week brings us the release of six monthly economic reports for the markets to digest. With very important data scheduled for release three different days and relevant data four of the five days, we will likely see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing this week.

The first data is one of the most important reports of the week. The Commerce Department will give us October’s Retail Sales figures early tomorrow morning. This data measures consumer spending, which is considered extremely important because it makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show a 0.9% rise in spending, meaning consumers spent much more last month than they did in September. This would be considered negative news for bonds because large increases in spending fuels an economic recovery and raises inflation concerns in the marketplace. If tomorrow’s report reveals a smaller than expected increase in spending, bonds should react favorably, pushing mortgage rates lower. If it shows a larger than expected increase, mortgage rates will likely move higher tomorrow.

There are two reports scheduled to be posted Tuesday. The first is October's Producer Price Index (PPI) that is one of the two key inflation readings on tap this week. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.5% in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core reading.

Tuesday’s second report is October's Industrial Production data. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.4% increase in production. Stronger levels of production would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is not as important as the PPI readings are.

October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET Wednesday morning. This index is similar to Tuesday's PPI, except it measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. The overall reading is expected to show an increase of 0.2% while the core data is expected to rise 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, while larger than forecasted increases could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday.

Wednesday’s second report is October’s Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts and the CPI matches expectations. It is expected to show a small increase in starts of new homes.

The Conference Board will release its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late Thursday morning. This is a moderately important report that attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase, meaning economic activity will rise over the next couple of months. Generally speaking, this would be bad news for bonds. However, since this data is considered only moderately important, its results need to vary greatly from forecasts for it to affect mortgage rates.

Overall, look for any of the first three days of the week to be the most important with very important reports scheduled each day. The quietest day will most likely be Friday since there is no relevant data scheduled for release that day. Fed Chairman Bernanke is making a lunchtime speech tomorrow, but I don’t think it will cause much movement in rates. The key releases will be tomorrow’s Retail Sales and Wednesday’s CPI reports. They will probably determine whether rates close the week higher or lower than tomorrow’s opening levels. Since this is likely to be a fairly active week for mortgage rates, it would be prudent to maintain regular contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/13/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened flat following favorable consumer confidence news but early stock gains. The stock markets are looking to close the week in an upward move with the Dow up 78 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged, but we should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report was posted this morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It revealed a deficit of $36.5 billion that exceeded forecasts by a wide margin. Fortunately for mortgage rates this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets.

The second report of the day was the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for November. It came in with a reading of 66.0, falling well short of analysts’ expectations. This was good news for bonds because it indicated that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That means they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, limiting fuel for economic growth.

Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction drew a lackluster interest from investors. Many of the readings used to measure investor demand fell short of recent sales. This means that investors are leery of purchasing long-term debt from the U.S., but mortgage-related bonds faired well despite the news. This led to many lenders revising rates lower late yesterday or this morning.

Next week is much more active in terms of economic releases than this week was. We do have important data being posted Monday morning when the Commerce Department will release October’s Retail Sales data. This is a very important release because it gives us a measurement of consumer spending. Since consumer level spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related news is watched closely.

The rest of the week gives us additional important reports such as the two key inflation indexes. Look for more details on those and the rest of next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/12/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite stock weakness. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 52 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Tuesday’s close, so we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures this morning. They reported that 502,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, falling short of expectations. That is theoretically bad news for bonds, but since this data gives us only a week’s worth of new claims its impact on mortgage rates is usually minimal. Accordingly, it has not influenced today’s mortgage pricing.

We also have the 30-year Treasury Bond auction to watch today. It is considered to be less important to mortgage rates than Tuesday’s 10-year sale was, but does have the potential to affect mortgage rates. Bond traders will be looking for a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers. If there is an overwhelmingly strong interest in the sale, bonds may rally after the results are posted at 1:00 PM ET tomorrow. But a weak sale could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates later this afternoon.

The first monthly data of the week is tomorrow’s release of September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities’ proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $31.8 billion trade deficit.

Tomorrow’s second report is November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 71.0, up slightly from October’s final reading of 70.6. That would be considered negative news for bonds because rising sentiment means consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations and are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/10/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite early gains in stocks. The stock markets are extending yesterday’s rally, but by a much less margin. The Dow is currently up 27 points while the Nasdaq has gained 4 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled to be posted today. However, we do have the 10-year Treasury Note sale to be concerned with. The markets will be gauging investor interest in this sale, particularly from international buyers. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, indicating a strong appetite for U.S. debt, we may see bond prices rise during afternoon trading. If this is the case, mortgage rates will likely revise lower. But, a weak interest in the auction could lead to higher mortgage pricing later today. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

I find it interesting that the bond market has had little reaction to the stock market rally. This could mean that bond traders are not impressed and not concerned about further increases. This bodes well for mortgage rates because if stock gains are not a concern, or better yet stocks pull back, we could see a sizable bond rally. There are some analysts who feel the stock rally is running out of steam. If this is true, we may by in store for a sizable rally in bonds and improvements to mortgage rates in the immediate future.

The bond market is closed tomorrow in observance of the Veterans Day holiday, however the stock markets will be open. There is no early close scheduled for today that precedes some holidays, so I don’t expect the holiday to affect today’s trading. Many lenders will also be closed tomorrow, but those that will be open will probably not issue new rates until Thursday morning.

The only factual economic data scheduled for release Thursday are weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to show that 510,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be a slight change from the previous week’s total, but since this data tracks a only week’s worth of new claims it likely will not impact bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. It will require a wide variance between forecasts and the actual number of new claims to see mortgage rates react to this data.

The week’s only two economic reports are scheduled to be posted Friday morning. Neither of them are considered to be highly important, so we should not expect a noticeable movement in mortgage rates due to their results. Since it is the week’s only monthly data, we may see movement in the markets after their results are posted, but I don’t believe it will be enough to lead to a significant change in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite early stock gains. The stock markets are rallying this morning, pushing the Dow to a one year high. It is currently showing a gain of 140 points while the Nasdaq is up 50 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. In fact, there is no relevant data scheduled until Friday morning. There are two important Treasury auctions this week that may influence mortgage rates more than the minor economic data that is scheduled. It is also a holiday-shortened week with the bond market closed Wednesday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

The stock markets will likely be a significant influence on bond trading and mortgage rates this week in addition to the two particular Treasury auctions. If the stock markets rally, we will probably see funds shift from bonds into stocks that potentially offer better returns. The Dow closed above 10,000 last week, but not by much. Therefore, if stocks fall from current levels early in the week, concerns about them being able to move much higher in the near future could lead to significant selling. That would make bonds more attractive to investors and lead to lower mortgage rates.

The two important Treasury auctions come tomorrow and Thursday when 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds are sold. The 10-year sale is the more important one as it will give us an indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. They are usually sold on back-to-back days, but the Wednesday holiday pushes the first sale back to Tuesday. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Overall, it is difficult to predict just how active this week will be for mortgage rates. As expected, last week brought us quite a bit of volatility in rates. This week could be very calm or could be just as active as last week was. I don’t believe the economic data on tap will be a catalyst. I think the key will be the stock markets and tomorrow’s Treasury auction. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely close the week lower than this morning’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary- The week ahead

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

This week brings us the release of only two relevant economic reports but neither of them is considered to be highly important. There are two important Treasury auctions this week that may influence mortgage rates more than the minor economic data that is scheduled. It is also a holiday-shortened week with the bond market closed Wednesday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

Both of this week’s monthly economic reports will be posted Friday morning. This means that the stock markets will likely be a significant influence on bond trading and mortgage rates in addition to the two particular Treasury auctions. If the stock markets rally, we will probably see funds shift from bonds into stocks that potentially offer better returns. The Dow closed above 10,000 last week, but not by much. Therefore, if stocks fall from current levels early in the week, concerns about them being able to move much higher in the near future could lead to significant selling. That would make bonds more attractive to investors and lead to lower mortgage rates.

The two important Treasury auctions come Tuesday and Thursday when 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds are sold. The 10-year sale is the more important one as it will give us an indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. They are usually sold on back-to-back days, but the Wednesday holiday pushes the first sale back to Tuesday. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.

The first monthly data of the week is September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Friday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities’ proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

Friday’s second report is November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 71.4, up from October’s final reading of 70.6. That would be considered negative news for bonds because rising sentiment means consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations and are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely.

Overall, it is difficult to predict just how active this week will be for mortgage rates. As expected, last week brought us quite a bit of volatility in rates. This week could be very calm or could be just as active as last week was. I don’t believe the economic data on tap will be a catalyst. I think the key will be the stock markets and Tuesday’s Treasury auction. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely close the week lower than tomorrow’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11-06-09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of weaker than expected employment figures. The stock markets are reacting relatively well to the news with the Dow up 10 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate spiked to 10.2% last month, reaching its highest level since April 1983. Analysts were expecting to see it move slightly to 9.9%. The number of jobs lost during the month stood at 190,000, which exceeded forecasts also. However, offsetting that variance was a downward revision of 49,000 jobs lost during September.

Still, the double-digit unemployment rate has many traders questioning the ability of the economy to maintain its recent growth. The recent weakness in bonds had pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note above its recent trading range. This morning’s news and buying gives hope that we may be able to crack that threshold and move lower. If we do, there is a fairly decent possibility of seeing further improvements to in the immediate future. This could mean lower mortgage rates over the next week or so.

Next week is very light in terms of economic reports. There are only a couple of relevant reports scheduled and they don’t come until the latter part of the week. This means that the stock markets will likely heavily influence trading and mortgage rates. If today’s data continues to affect the markets next week, we will probably see further improvements in mortgage rates as the week progresses. Accordingly, a less cautious approach towards interest rates may benefit mortgage shoppers at this time, but look for more details on next week’s related events in Sunday’s weekly preview.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/05

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Thursday’s bond market has opened down slightly following another stock rally. The stock markets are showing strong gains with the Dow up 182 points and the Nasdaq up 42 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates near yesterday’s levels.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity data gave us favorable results. It showed a spike in productivity of a 9.5% increase. This was much stronger than expected, but that is good news for bonds for this type of data. Strong levels of productivity allow the economy to grow without inflation strains. Since inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market, any news that eases inflation concerns is considered positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department also gave us last week’s unemployment figures, reporting that 512,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was lower than forecasts and can be considered negative for bonds, but fortunately this data is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage pricing.

October’s monthly employment figures will be released early tomorrow morning. This extremely important report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most watched ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise in unemployment to bring the national rate to 9.9%, a drop in payrolls of approximately 175,000 and a 0.1% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds and lead to improvements in mortgage rates, while stronger than forecasted results would add fuel to the growing economy theory and likely lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates tomorrow.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Alert. Special Afternoon Post

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates. This was widely expected, but we still have seen a negative reaction in bonds. The stock markets had a knee-jerk downward move after the post-meeting statement was released, but they have since recovered those losses. The Dow is currently up 110 points while the Nasdaq has gained 15 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely cause an upward change to mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point compared to this morning’s rates.

In the post-meeting statement, the Fed indicated that key short-term interest rates will remain near current levels for quite some time. That can be considered good news for bonds because it means the Fed is not too concerned about inflation. However, they also renewed previous comments that the economy is indeed growing. Even though there is cautious optimism about the economy being able to continue to expand, hearing the Fed further support the theory that the economy may be able to do so has hurt bond prices.

Also contributing to this afternoon’s bond selling was word that the Fed has lowered the amount of mortgage-related debt it is planning to purchase by $25 billion. The Fed is still expecting to make large purchases of those securities to help fuel mortgage lending and boost the housing sector. But the reduction from previous estimates has helped create a negative tone in the bond market this afternoon.

There was no important economic news posted this morning. Tomorrow’s data is relatively important to the bond market though. The 3rd Quarter Productivity reading is expected to show an increase in productivity at an annual rate of 6.5%. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because higher levels of productivity allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures tomorrow morning also. They are expected to report that 522,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week, but unless we see a wide variance from expectations I don’t believe this data will have much of an impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates. Especially with October’s monthly numbers coming Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/4/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors prepare for today’s FOMC news. Early stock gains are also contributing to this morning’s bond losses. The Dow is currently up 99 points while the Nasdaq has gained 14 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

There is no important economic data being released today. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said their services index fell last month, meaning that sentiment in the service sector was weaker than thought. This can be considered good news for the bond market, but this index is far less important than the ISM manufacturing index posted Monday. Therefore, its impact on this morning’s trading and mortgage pricing has been minimal.

This afternoon brings us the adjournment of the two-day FOMC meeting. There is almost no possibility that the Fed raised key short-term interest rates during this monetary policy meeting. But market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of when the Fed may make a move. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET, so look for any reaction to the statement to come during afternoon hours. Generally speaking, any hint of a rate increase coming relatively soon would be negative news for bonds and lead to higher mortgage rates.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the statement release.

Tomorrow’s data is relatively important to the bond market. This report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. It is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter equivalent to last quarter’s final reading of 6.6%. Analysts have forecasted a 6.4% rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity allows the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 11/2/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due to early stock strength and stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are starting the week with sizable gains. The Dow is currently up 104 points while the Nasdaq is showing a 15 point gain. The bond market is currently down 6/32, but we will likely see little change to this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late Friday.

Today’s only relevant economic data came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who said that their manufacturing index stood at 55.7. This was higher than the 53.0 that was forecasted and its highest reading since April 2006. This indicates that manufacturer sentiment about business conditions improved more than thought, hinting at manufacturing sector strength. That is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a strengthening manufacturing sector makes broader economic growth more likely.

The rest of the week brings us three more relevant economic reports and another FOMC meeting. The next is tomorrow’s release of September’s Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 0.9% increase in new orders from August’s level. A smaller than forecasted increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a larger than expected rise is bad news and should push rates higher tomorrow.

There is no important data scheduled for release Wednesday. However, this week’s FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins Tuesday and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. There is almost no possibility of the Fed raising key short-term interest rates this week. But market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of when the Fed may make a move. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday, so look for any reaction to the statement to come during afternoon hours. Generally speaking, any hint of a rate increase coming relatively soon would be negative news for bonds and lead to higher mortgage rates.

Overall, the single most important day will likely be Friday but tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could significantly move the markets and mortgage also. I believe stocks will continue to experience volatility that will also impact bond trading. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than this morning’s levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary week of November 1, 2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

This week brings us the release of four relevant economic reports for the markets to digest with two of those reports being much more important than the other two. In addition to the factual reports, we also have another FOMC meeting to work around this week. This leads me to believe that we will see another active week for mortgage rates.

The first report comes late tomorrow morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index. The index measures manufacturer sentiment, which is important because it gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month. Tomorrow’s release is expected to show a reading of 53.0, meaning that sentiment increased slightly from September’s level. A smaller than expected reading would be good news for bonds and likely lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Tuesday’s only relevant news is September’s Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 0.9% increase in new orders from August’s level. A smaller than forecasted increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a larger than expected rise is bad news and should push rates higher.

There is no important data scheduled for release Wednesday. However, this week’s FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins Tuesday and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. There is almost no possibility of the Fed raising key short-term interest rates this week. But market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of when the Fed may make a move. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday, so look for any reaction to the statement to come during afternoon hours. Generally speaking, any hint of a rate increase coming relatively soon would be negative news for bonds and lead to higher mortgage rates.

Thursday’s report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter equivalent to last quarter’s final reading of 6.6%. Analysts have forecasted a 6.4% rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity allows the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The last report of the week is the most important. Friday brings us the release of one of the most important monthly reports- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October’s employment stats early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise in unemployment to bring the national rate to 9.9%, a drop in payrolls of approximately 175,000 and a 0.1% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds and lead to improvements in mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news.

Overall, the single most important day is Friday but tomorrow’s data is also considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic reports and the FOMC meeting, I believe stocks will continue to experience volatility that will also impact bond trading. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than tomorrow morning’s levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you are considering a purchase or refinance and have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that mortgage rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com