Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s economic news failed to give us any significant surprises. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.
The more important of today’s two reports was the revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed that the economy contracted at an annual pace of 5.7% during the first three months of the year. This was an upward revision from the previous estimate, but was slightly weaker than the 5.5% decline that was forecasted. This means that economic activity was stronger than previously announced, but was not as strong as analysts' revised forecasts. This basically is good news for bonds, however, the amount of the variance was not enough to heavily influence trading or mortgage pricing this morning.
The University of Michigan updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May late this morning. They said the index stood at 68.7 compared to the 67.9 that was previously announced. This means that consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than was expected. That can be considered negative news for bonds, but as with the GDP revision, the results were not enough to affect mortgage rates.
Next week is packed with relevant economic data for the markets to digest. It begins with two reports Monday morning that are relevant to bonds and mortgage pricing. Early Monday morning we will see April’s Personal Income and Outlays data that will give us a measurement of consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show a decline in both readings.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index late Monday morning. This is a fairly important report because it measure manufacturer sentiment. It is expected to show a slight increase from March’s reading, indicating that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved this month than the last month.
Look for more details on next week’s data and events in Sunday’s weekly preview. It will likely be a pretty active week for mortgage rates with relevant data being posted four out of the five days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 05/26/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market opened in positive territory but has since slipped into negative ground after today’s only relevant economic data showed a much higher than expected reading. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 170 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Conference Board gave us the news that is pressuring bonds and boosting stocks. They said late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) spiked to 54.9 this month, greatly exceeding forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of approximately 42.0, meaning that consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is negative news for bonds because rising confidence usually translates into higher level of consumer spending, which fuels the economy.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report late tomorrow morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. The big reports of the week were today’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders data. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates.
There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are also worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday’s bond market opened in positive territory but has since slipped into negative ground after today’s only relevant economic data showed a much higher than expected reading. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 170 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Conference Board gave us the news that is pressuring bonds and boosting stocks. They said late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) spiked to 54.9 this month, greatly exceeding forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of approximately 42.0, meaning that consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is negative news for bonds because rising confidence usually translates into higher level of consumer spending, which fuels the economy.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report late tomorrow morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. The big reports of the week were today’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders data. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates.
There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are also worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This weeks mortgage market
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This holiday shortened week brings us the release of six important economic reports or news releases. Two of the six are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate importance to the markets. The financial and mortgage markets are closed today in observance of the Memorial Day holiday and will reopen tomorrow morning.
The Conference Board will start the week’s releases by posting their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM tomorrow. This is one of the more important releases of the week because is measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers feel better about their personal financial situations and are more apt to make large purchases. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. That should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 42.0 after April’s 39.2 reading.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report Wednesday morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
We will get two monthly reports Thursday morning. The more important of the two is April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%. If this report shows a stronger than expected reading, we should see mortgage rates rise because it indicates manufacturing growth. If it shows a smaller than expected rise, we could see rates improve Thursday morning. April’s New Home Sales data will be released late Thursday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a small increase in sales.
The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Friday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn't expected to have much of an impact on the financial markets. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 6.1% decline in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect an upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 5.5% decline. If the upward revision is stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher. The second report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It is forecasted to show little change from this month’s preliminary reading of 67.9. An upward revision would be considered a negative for bonds.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. With the markets closed today, Tuesday’s data will set the tone for the first part of the week. The big reports of the week are Tuesday’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This holiday shortened week brings us the release of six important economic reports or news releases. Two of the six are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate importance to the markets. The financial and mortgage markets are closed today in observance of the Memorial Day holiday and will reopen tomorrow morning.
The Conference Board will start the week’s releases by posting their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM tomorrow. This is one of the more important releases of the week because is measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers feel better about their personal financial situations and are more apt to make large purchases. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. That should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 42.0 after April’s 39.2 reading.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report Wednesday morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
We will get two monthly reports Thursday morning. The more important of the two is April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%. If this report shows a stronger than expected reading, we should see mortgage rates rise because it indicates manufacturing growth. If it shows a smaller than expected rise, we could see rates improve Thursday morning. April’s New Home Sales data will be released late Thursday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a small increase in sales.
The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Friday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn't expected to have much of an impact on the financial markets. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 6.1% decline in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect an upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 5.5% decline. If the upward revision is stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher. The second report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It is forecasted to show little change from this month’s preliminary reading of 67.9. An upward revision would be considered a negative for bonds.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. With the markets closed today, Tuesday’s data will set the tone for the first part of the week. The big reports of the week are Tuesday’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary-05/22/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday's bond market opened in well in negative territory as the selling continues into the long weekend. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 67 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 to .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today. The negative tone in bonds is a carryover from yesterday’s announcement of $100 billion in new debt being sold by the Fed. This was more than expected and led to selling of current securities. The result was a significant loss to bonds during afternoon trading.
The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early, but after this morning’s losses I don’t think we will see enough of a change to push mortgage rates any higher today.
Next week is fairly busy with economic reports scheduled for release every trading day. Some of the reports are fairly important, but none are considered extremely important. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday's bond market opened in well in negative territory as the selling continues into the long weekend. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 67 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 to .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today. The negative tone in bonds is a carryover from yesterday’s announcement of $100 billion in new debt being sold by the Fed. This was more than expected and led to selling of current securities. The result was a significant loss to bonds during afternoon trading.
The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early, but after this morning’s losses I don’t think we will see enough of a change to push mortgage rates any higher today.
Next week is fairly busy with economic reports scheduled for release every trading day. Some of the reports are fairly important, but none are considered extremely important. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary- 05/21/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since fallen well into negative ground. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq down 34 points. The bond market is now down 26/32, but we will still see a slight improvement to this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of gains late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see upward rate revisions if bonds continue to remain weak today.
The Labor Department reported this morning that 631,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but not nearly enough of a difference to influence this morning's mortgage rates.
April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released late this morning, revealing an increase of 1.0%. This was a larger increase than was expected and indicates that the economy may grow at a decent pace of the next three to six months. But, this is only one indicator and does not mean that the economy is going to rebound quickly. Still, the news is considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
The turnaround in bonds came after the Fed said that $100 billion in new debt will be sold in the immediate future. This was more than expected and makes current Treasury securities less appealing to investors. That has led to selling during late morning trading as traders prepare for those sales.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, but the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since fallen well into negative ground. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq down 34 points. The bond market is now down 26/32, but we will still see a slight improvement to this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of gains late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see upward rate revisions if bonds continue to remain weak today.
The Labor Department reported this morning that 631,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but not nearly enough of a difference to influence this morning's mortgage rates.
April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released late this morning, revealing an increase of 1.0%. This was a larger increase than was expected and indicates that the economy may grow at a decent pace of the next three to six months. But, this is only one indicator and does not mean that the economy is going to rebound quickly. Still, the news is considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
The turnaround in bonds came after the Fed said that $100 billion in new debt will be sold in the immediate future. This was more than expected and makes current Treasury securities less appealing to investors. That has led to selling during late morning trading as traders prepare for those sales.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, but the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary- 05/20/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The bond market has improved noticeably during afternoon trading after traders were able to digest the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Those minutes revealed that the Fed has revised their economic outlook lower from previous estimates. They indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate is likely reach somewhere between 9.2% and 9.6% this year. They had previously predicted an 8.5% to 8.8% range, meaning the labor market is worse off than previously thought.
They also said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total of all goods and services produced on the U.S. and the best measurement of economic activity, will likely fall 1.3% - 2.0% this year. They had said previously that a drop between 0.5% and 1.3% was likely. This means that overall economic activity will likely be lower this year than their previous forecasts had called for.
Both of these revisions are good news for bonds. A weak labor market usually coincides with a weak economy. During a soft economic environment, bonds and mortgage related securities become more appealing to investors. This usually drives bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower.
The impact this news had on today’s markets was favorable to mortgage borrowers. The stock markets fell with the Dow closing down almost 53 points and the Nasdaq down almost 7 points, while the bond market rallied to close up 16/32. The result should be an improvement in this afternoon’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. Some lenders may opt to wait until tomorrow morning to reflect those improvements, but many will likely revise lower today.
The Labor Department will post weekly unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 640,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This data is not considered to be important, so unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts, it likely will not influence mortgage rates.
The last data of the week comes late tomorrow morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a fairly large increase of 0.6% from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to gain momentum during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The bond market has improved noticeably during afternoon trading after traders were able to digest the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Those minutes revealed that the Fed has revised their economic outlook lower from previous estimates. They indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate is likely reach somewhere between 9.2% and 9.6% this year. They had previously predicted an 8.5% to 8.8% range, meaning the labor market is worse off than previously thought.
They also said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total of all goods and services produced on the U.S. and the best measurement of economic activity, will likely fall 1.3% - 2.0% this year. They had said previously that a drop between 0.5% and 1.3% was likely. This means that overall economic activity will likely be lower this year than their previous forecasts had called for.
Both of these revisions are good news for bonds. A weak labor market usually coincides with a weak economy. During a soft economic environment, bonds and mortgage related securities become more appealing to investors. This usually drives bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower.
The impact this news had on today’s markets was favorable to mortgage borrowers. The stock markets fell with the Dow closing down almost 53 points and the Nasdaq down almost 7 points, while the bond market rallied to close up 16/32. The result should be an improvement in this afternoon’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. Some lenders may opt to wait until tomorrow morning to reflect those improvements, but many will likely revise lower today.
The Labor Department will post weekly unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 640,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This data is not considered to be important, so unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts, it likely will not influence mortgage rates.
The last data of the week comes late tomorrow morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a fairly large increase of 0.6% from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to gain momentum during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday, May 18, 2009
This week in the Mortgage Market week of 5/17/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This week brings us the release of only two pieces of economic news in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Neither of the economic reports can be considered of high importance to the markets and mortgage rates, so we may see a fairly calm week for mortgage rates.
April’s Housing Starts is the first data of the week but is the less important of the two. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking new permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show a small increase in new starts from March’s readings. But, since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday, but we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy. The goal is to form a guess about when the Fed may make another move to help the economy. The minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.
The last data comes late Thursday morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a fairly large increase of 0.7% from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to gain momentum during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher Thursday.
Overall, I think it will be a fairly calm week for mortgage rates, at least compared to last week. We could see little movement in rates if the stock markets remain calm and the week’s data doesn’t reveal any major surprises. The FOMC minutes may lead to some volatility in the markets, but neither of the economic reports are of great concern.
Also worth noting is an early close in the bond market Friday afternoon ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This week brings us the release of only two pieces of economic news in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Neither of the economic reports can be considered of high importance to the markets and mortgage rates, so we may see a fairly calm week for mortgage rates.
April’s Housing Starts is the first data of the week but is the less important of the two. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking new permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show a small increase in new starts from March’s readings. But, since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday, but we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy. The goal is to form a guess about when the Fed may make another move to help the economy. The minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.
The last data comes late Thursday morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a fairly large increase of 0.7% from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to gain momentum during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher Thursday.
Overall, I think it will be a fairly calm week for mortgage rates, at least compared to last week. We could see little movement in rates if the stock markets remain calm and the week’s data doesn’t reveal any major surprises. The FOMC minutes may lead to some volatility in the markets, but neither of the economic reports are of great concern.
Also worth noting is an early close in the bond market Friday afternoon ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 05/14/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened flat after this morning’s inflation report failed to give us a significant surprise. The stock markets are showing gains during morning trading that have also helped keep bonds near yesterday’s closing level. The Dow is currently up 45 points while the Nasdaq has gained 22 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32, but we will still likely see a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates.
The Labor Department said this morning that April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3%. This was higher than expected, however, the 0.1% increase in the core data reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices matched forecasts. In other words, the overall index showed that prices rose more at the producer level of the economy than was predicted, but the more important core data did not reveal any surprises.
The Labor Department also released last week’s unemployment figures, saying that 637,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was more than expected, which is favorable for bonds. However, this data is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage rates.
There are three relevant reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow. The first is the week’s most important. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM. It is similar to today’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
April’s Industrial Production is the second relevant report. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is slowing rapidly. A larger decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected.
The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, which would be little change from last month’s final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will likely rise, assuming the CPI does not give us a significant surprise.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday’s bond market has opened flat after this morning’s inflation report failed to give us a significant surprise. The stock markets are showing gains during morning trading that have also helped keep bonds near yesterday’s closing level. The Dow is currently up 45 points while the Nasdaq has gained 22 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32, but we will still likely see a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates.
The Labor Department said this morning that April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3%. This was higher than expected, however, the 0.1% increase in the core data reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices matched forecasts. In other words, the overall index showed that prices rose more at the producer level of the economy than was predicted, but the more important core data did not reveal any surprises.
The Labor Department also released last week’s unemployment figures, saying that 637,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was more than expected, which is favorable for bonds. However, this data is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage rates.
There are three relevant reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow. The first is the week’s most important. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM. It is similar to today’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
April’s Industrial Production is the second relevant report. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is slowing rapidly. A larger decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected.
The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, which would be little change from last month’s final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will likely rise, assuming the CPI does not give us a significant surprise.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 05/13/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected Retail Sales report. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 159 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that sales at retail establishments fell 0.4% last month. This was much lower than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that consumer spending is softening. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, today’s report hints that an economy recovery may not be as soon as some analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.
Tomorrow morning also brings us an important economic report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
Also tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures by the Labor Department. Last Thursday’s posting showed a sizable drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow’s release is expected to reveal 609,000 new claims were filed, which would be an increase of 8,000. However, this data is not nearly important as the PPI is and will likely not influence bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Friday brings us the release of three relevant reports, including the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI). The other two are moderately important to the markets, but the group of three combined can create a large amount of volatility in the markets if they reveal surprising results. But the CPI will be the primary report of the day.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected Retail Sales report. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 159 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that sales at retail establishments fell 0.4% last month. This was much lower than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that consumer spending is softening. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, today’s report hints that an economy recovery may not be as soon as some analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.
Tomorrow morning also brings us an important economic report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
Also tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures by the Labor Department. Last Thursday’s posting showed a sizable drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow’s release is expected to reveal 609,000 new claims were filed, which would be an increase of 8,000. However, this data is not nearly important as the PPI is and will likely not influence bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Friday brings us the release of three relevant reports, including the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI). The other two are moderately important to the markets, but the group of three combined can create a large amount of volatility in the markets if they reveal surprising results. But the CPI will be the primary report of the day.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory- 05/12/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no important economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report was posted this morning, revealing a trade deficit of $27.6 billion. This figure was below forecasts, but since this data is not considered to be highly important, its impact on this morning’s trading has been minimal.
The first important piece of data comes tomorrow morning when April’s Retail Sales report will be released. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Thursday brings us another important report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no important economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report was posted this morning, revealing a trade deficit of $27.6 billion. This figure was below forecasts, but since this data is not considered to be highly important, its impact on this morning’s trading has been minimal.
The first important piece of data comes tomorrow morning when April’s Retail Sales report will be released. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Thursday brings us another important report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advice- 05/11/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory due early selling in stocks. The stock markets are posting significant losses with the Dow down 106 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The first data of the week is March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week’s data.
The first important piece of data is the release of April’s Retail Sales early Wednesday morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Overall, it likely will be a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week’s important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the CPI. But Wednesday is also important due to the Retail Sales report. I am expecting to see several noticeable changes to rates this week, and would not be surprised to see multiple intra-day revisions also. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory due early selling in stocks. The stock markets are posting significant losses with the Dow down 106 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The first data of the week is March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week’s data.
The first important piece of data is the release of April’s Retail Sales early Wednesday morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Overall, it likely will be a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week’s important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the CPI. But Wednesday is also important due to the Retail Sales report. I am expecting to see several noticeable changes to rates this week, and would not be surprised to see multiple intra-day revisions also. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This weeks mortgage market
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
There are several important pieces of economic news scheduled for release this week, but three stand out above the others. There are a total of six reports scheduled, so it can be considered a fairly active week. There is no relevant data due out tomorrow, so expect the stock markets to help drive bond trading and mortgage rates.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Tuesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week’s data.
The first important piece of data is the release of April’s Retail Sales early Wednesday morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
The second important report of the week is April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Thursday morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers. There are three relevant reports scheduled to be posted Friday. The first is the week’s most important. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM. It is similar to Thursday’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
April’s Industrial Production is Friday’s second relevant report. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is slowing rapidly. A larger decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected. The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, which would be little change from last month’s final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will likely rise, assuming the CPI does not give us a significant surprise.
Overall, it likely will be a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week’s important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the CPI. But Wednesday is important due to the Retail Sales report. I am expecting to see several noticeable changes to rates this week, and would not be surprised to see multiple intra-day revisions also. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
There are several important pieces of economic news scheduled for release this week, but three stand out above the others. There are a total of six reports scheduled, so it can be considered a fairly active week. There is no relevant data due out tomorrow, so expect the stock markets to help drive bond trading and mortgage rates.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Tuesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week’s data.
The first important piece of data is the release of April’s Retail Sales early Wednesday morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
The second important report of the week is April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Thursday morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers. There are three relevant reports scheduled to be posted Friday. The first is the week’s most important. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM. It is similar to Thursday’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
April’s Industrial Production is Friday’s second relevant report. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is slowing rapidly. A larger decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected. The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, which would be little change from last month’s final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will likely rise, assuming the CPI does not give us a significant surprise.
Overall, it likely will be a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week’s important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the CPI. But Wednesday is important due to the Retail Sales report. I am expecting to see several noticeable changes to rates this week, and would not be surprised to see multiple intra-day revisions also. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory- 05/08/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected reading in today’s Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorable also with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 25-year high of 8.9% last month. They also reported that 539,000 jobs were lost during the month, falling short of the 600,000 jobs that latest forecasts had predicted. This was the fewest number of lost jobs since October, giving hope that the shedding may be slowing. The average hourly earnings reading rose 0.1%, when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. Overall, the report gave us mixed results on the status of the labor market, but bonds and stocks have reacted favorably to its results.
Next week is very busy with many relevant economic reports on the calendar. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but the rest of the week brings us a couple of key inflation readings, an important measurement of consumer spending and a reading on industrial output.
I am expecting to see a fairly calm day Monday unless we get some relevant news over the weekend. But the middle and latter parts of the week will probably be extremely active with several key reports being posted over three trading days. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview, but expect to see some volatility late next week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected reading in today’s Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorable also with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 25-year high of 8.9% last month. They also reported that 539,000 jobs were lost during the month, falling short of the 600,000 jobs that latest forecasts had predicted. This was the fewest number of lost jobs since October, giving hope that the shedding may be slowing. The average hourly earnings reading rose 0.1%, when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. Overall, the report gave us mixed results on the status of the labor market, but bonds and stocks have reacted favorably to its results.
Next week is very busy with many relevant economic reports on the calendar. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but the rest of the week brings us a couple of key inflation readings, an important measurement of consumer spending and a reading on industrial output.
I am expecting to see a fairly calm day Monday unless we get some relevant news over the weekend. But the middle and latter parts of the week will probably be extremely active with several key reports being posted over three trading days. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview, but expect to see some volatility late next week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory- 05/07/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing moderate strength during early trading with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
The Labor Department gave us both of this morning’s releases. The more important of the two was the 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data that revealed a larger than expected 0.8% increase in worker output. The bad news came from the Unit Labor Costs reading that showed a 3.3% increase. That was higher than the 2.7% that was forecasted, meaning employer costs were higher than thought. Higher costs can translate to wage inflation concerns, therefore, this portion of the report is a negative for bonds.
The second bit of news was last week’s unemployment figures. It showed that 601,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This is a three month low and was well below forecasts of 635,000, but fortunately this data is not considered to be highly influential on mortgage rates. However, it does raise additional concern about tomorrow’s monthly report.
Yesterday’s 10-year Note sale was met with a decent demand from investors. That led to improvements in bonds during afternoon trading yesterday and some lenders to revise mortgage pricing lower. The Treasury will sell 30-year Bonds today, posting the results at 1:30 PM ET. Another round of strong bidding could cause bonds to get back some of this morning’s earlier losses. However, I suspect that most mortgage lenders will wait until tomorrow’s big news rather than revising their rates this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
It could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market tomrrow, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing moderate strength during early trading with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
The Labor Department gave us both of this morning’s releases. The more important of the two was the 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data that revealed a larger than expected 0.8% increase in worker output. The bad news came from the Unit Labor Costs reading that showed a 3.3% increase. That was higher than the 2.7% that was forecasted, meaning employer costs were higher than thought. Higher costs can translate to wage inflation concerns, therefore, this portion of the report is a negative for bonds.
The second bit of news was last week’s unemployment figures. It showed that 601,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This is a three month low and was well below forecasts of 635,000, but fortunately this data is not considered to be highly influential on mortgage rates. However, it does raise additional concern about tomorrow’s monthly report.
Yesterday’s 10-year Note sale was met with a decent demand from investors. That led to improvements in bonds during afternoon trading yesterday and some lenders to revise mortgage pricing lower. The Treasury will sell 30-year Bonds today, posting the results at 1:30 PM ET. Another round of strong bidding could cause bonds to get back some of this morning’s earlier losses. However, I suspect that most mortgage lenders will wait until tomorrow’s big news rather than revising their rates this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
It could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market tomrrow, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory- 05/04/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week in positive territory with the Dow up 93 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement to mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The week is very light in terms of the number of scheduled economic releases. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee late tomorrow morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning and April’s Employment figures Friday morning. Thursday’s report is fairly important, but Friday’s data is one of the most important reports we see each month.
In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tomorrow’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week in positive territory with the Dow up 93 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement to mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The week is very light in terms of the number of scheduled economic releases. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee late tomorrow morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning and April’s Employment figures Friday morning. Thursday’s report is fairly important, but Friday’s data is one of the most important reports we see each month.
In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tomorrow’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Mortgage Advisory- Week of 5/3/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This week is very light in terms of the number of economic releases that are scheduled to be posted. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee Tuesday morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 0.9% increase in productivity and a 2.5% increase in the labor costs reading.
Friday brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month. In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day with no relevant data or events scheduled, but expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tuesday’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This week is very light in terms of the number of economic releases that are scheduled to be posted. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee Tuesday morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 0.9% increase in productivity and a 2.5% increase in the labor costs reading.
Friday brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month. In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day with no relevant data or events scheduled, but expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tuesday’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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