REFINANCES IN SECOND QUARTER REDUCE MORTGAGE PAYMENTS BY $3.4 BILLION IN COMING YEAR
Cashout Refinancing At Lowest Share Since Third Quarter 2003
McLean, VA – In the second quarter of 2009, half of borrowers who refinanced their loan lowered their annual mortgage interest rate by at least 20 percent according to Freddie Mac’s quarterly Refinance Report. The new interest rate was about 1.25 percentage points below the old rate. In aggregate the interest-rate reduction adds up to about $3.4 billion in payment savings for these homeowners over the next year.
"Interest rates for fixed-rate conventional conforming mortgages hit 50-year lows during the second quarter of 2009. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged just 5.03 percent over the quarter with 0.7 points, and twice hit an all-time weekly average low of 4.78 percent in April," noted Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "A big part of the benefit of refinancing is the lower monthly payment that borrowers enjoy – the payment savings from ‘rate-and-term’ refinancing done during the quarter is about $160 a month on a $200,000 loan. But these borrowers also accumulate principal faster than they would have with a higher-rate loan even after taking into account the longer terms of the new loans. In aggregate, second-quarter refinancers will have about $200 million additional principal paydown after a year than they would have under their old loans.
"Fixed mortgage rates are still very low, although they have climbed up a bit from their April lows. We are anticipating more than one-half of originations to be for refinancing throughout the rest of the year as long as rates stay near…
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Friday, July 31, 2009
Massachusetts Daily Mortgage Rate Commentary 07/31/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic readings. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
Today’s major news was the initial reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It was expected to show that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate last quarter, but actually revealed a 1.0% decline. In addition to the stronger than expected reading for this quarter, the 1st quarter’s GDP was revised lower from down 5.5% to down 6.4%. The downward revision is not necessarily good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it is too old to influence trading. However, it does increase the size of the improvement from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter, which should be taken as a negative for bonds and mortgage pricing. Fortunately, traders seem to be less concerned with these results than many had expected.
The second report of the day was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It also gave us stronger than expected results with a 0.4% increase. This means that wage and benefit costs rose slightly more than analysts had predicted. This is also negative news for the bond market because rising wages can lead to wage inflation that likely spreads to other parts of the economy. But as with the GDP reading, this data is not having much of an impact on today’s trading or rates.
Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction had mixed results. Some measurements of whether the sale went well or not showed respectable results. But other readings indicated that there was a lackluster interest in the auction. The bond market initially reacted negatively but then managed to bounce back before closing.
Next week is fairly busy with economic postings, bringing us a couple of very important reports. There is relevant data being posted four out of the five days, including Monday morning. Monday’s sole report is July’s ISM manufacturing index. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment about business conditions and is usually the first report we see each month. Look for more details on it and next week’s other events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Massachusetts borrowers should call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic readings. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
Today’s major news was the initial reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It was expected to show that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate last quarter, but actually revealed a 1.0% decline. In addition to the stronger than expected reading for this quarter, the 1st quarter’s GDP was revised lower from down 5.5% to down 6.4%. The downward revision is not necessarily good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it is too old to influence trading. However, it does increase the size of the improvement from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter, which should be taken as a negative for bonds and mortgage pricing. Fortunately, traders seem to be less concerned with these results than many had expected.
The second report of the day was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It also gave us stronger than expected results with a 0.4% increase. This means that wage and benefit costs rose slightly more than analysts had predicted. This is also negative news for the bond market because rising wages can lead to wage inflation that likely spreads to other parts of the economy. But as with the GDP reading, this data is not having much of an impact on today’s trading or rates.
Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction had mixed results. Some measurements of whether the sale went well or not showed respectable results. But other readings indicated that there was a lackluster interest in the auction. The bond market initially reacted negatively but then managed to bounce back before closing.
Next week is fairly busy with economic postings, bringing us a couple of very important reports. There is relevant data being posted four out of the five days, including Monday morning. Monday’s sole report is July’s ISM manufacturing index. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment about business conditions and is usually the first report we see each month. Look for more details on it and next week’s other events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Massachusetts borrowers should call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 07-31-2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic readings. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
Today’s major news was the initial reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It was expected to show that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate last quarter, but actually revealed a 1.0% decline. In addition to the stronger than expected reading for this quarter, the 1st quarter’s GDP was revised lower from down 5.5% to down 6.4%. The downward revision is not necessarily good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it is too old to influence trading. However, it does increase the size of the improvement from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter, which should be taken as a negative for bonds and mortgage pricing. Fortunately, traders seem to be less concerned with these results than many had expected.
The second report of the day was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It also gave us stronger than expected results with a 0.4% increase. This means that wage and benefit costs rose slightly more than analysts had predicted. This is also negative news for the bond market because rising wages can lead to wage inflation that likely spreads to other parts of the economy. But as with the GDP reading, this data is not having much of an impact on today’s trading or rates.
Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction had mixed results. Some measurements of whether the sale went well or not showed respectable results. But other readings indicated that there was a lackluster interest in the auction. The bond market initially reacted negatively but then managed to bounce back before closing.
Next week is fairly busy with economic postings, bringing us a couple of very important reports. There is relevant data being posted four out of the five days, including Monday morning. Monday’s sole report is July’s ISM manufacturing index. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment about business conditions and is usually the first report we see each month. Look for more details on it and next week’s other events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Massachusetts borrowers should call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic readings. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
Today’s major news was the initial reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It was expected to show that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate last quarter, but actually revealed a 1.0% decline. In addition to the stronger than expected reading for this quarter, the 1st quarter’s GDP was revised lower from down 5.5% to down 6.4%. The downward revision is not necessarily good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it is too old to influence trading. However, it does increase the size of the improvement from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter, which should be taken as a negative for bonds and mortgage pricing. Fortunately, traders seem to be less concerned with these results than many had expected.
The second report of the day was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It also gave us stronger than expected results with a 0.4% increase. This means that wage and benefit costs rose slightly more than analysts had predicted. This is also negative news for the bond market because rising wages can lead to wage inflation that likely spreads to other parts of the economy. But as with the GDP reading, this data is not having much of an impact on today’s trading or rates.
Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction had mixed results. Some measurements of whether the sale went well or not showed respectable results. But other readings indicated that there was a lackluster interest in the auction. The bond market initially reacted negatively but then managed to bounce back before closing.
Next week is fairly busy with economic postings, bringing us a couple of very important reports. There is relevant data being posted four out of the five days, including Monday morning. Monday’s sole report is July’s ISM manufacturing index. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment about business conditions and is usually the first report we see each month. Look for more details on it and next week’s other events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Massachusetts borrowers should call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Tax credit ends soon! Up to $8000
The $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit program ends November 30 of 2009. Just 4 months away. That means buyers need to CLOSE on their homes by NOVEMBER 30th in order to receive the tax break.
Details: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 authorizes a tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 replaces The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 which only offered a $7500 tax credit. Also under the previous Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, Home buyers were required to repay the tax credit to the government, without interest, over 15 years or when they sell the house, if there was sufficient capital gain from the sale. If there was insufficient profit, then the remaining credit payback would have been forgiven.
What is the home buyer tax credit? It is a tax refund for 10% of a primary home’s purchase price (up to $8K). The amount not used on your 2009 tax return will be refunded directly to you.
Who is eligible to receive the credit? First-time home buyers and those who have not owned a principal residence in the last three years prior to purchase.
Do income limits apply? Yes. The full amount is given to individuals who make up to $75K and married couples who make up to $150K per year (adjusted gross annual income). The credit amount phases out between $75K and $95K for individuals; $150K and $170K for joint filers.
If you want to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit, contact me to get prequalified for a a mortgage and to discuss your plans. Keep in mind it’s typically 45-60 days to close on a traditional real estate transaction (short sales can take much longer).
Details: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 authorizes a tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 replaces The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 which only offered a $7500 tax credit. Also under the previous Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, Home buyers were required to repay the tax credit to the government, without interest, over 15 years or when they sell the house, if there was sufficient capital gain from the sale. If there was insufficient profit, then the remaining credit payback would have been forgiven.
What is the home buyer tax credit? It is a tax refund for 10% of a primary home’s purchase price (up to $8K). The amount not used on your 2009 tax return will be refunded directly to you.
Who is eligible to receive the credit? First-time home buyers and those who have not owned a principal residence in the last three years prior to purchase.
Do income limits apply? Yes. The full amount is given to individuals who make up to $75K and married couples who make up to $150K per year (adjusted gross annual income). The credit amount phases out between $75K and $95K for individuals; $150K and $170K for joint filers.
If you want to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit, contact me to get prequalified for a a mortgage and to discuss your plans. Keep in mind it’s typically 45-60 days to close on a traditional real estate transaction (short sales can take much longer).
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 07/30/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following strong stock gains and renewed fears about the amount of debt the government is selling. The stock markets are rallying around fairly positive earnings reports that have the Dow up 129 points and the Nasdaq up 35 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
Today’s only economic news was weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They reported that 584,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This nearly matched forecasts and therefore has had no impact on this morning’s bond trading or mortgage rates.
Neither of yesterday’s afternoon events were favorable to bonds. The Fed Beige Book indicated that the economy is stabilizing in several regions of the U.S., which is bad for bonds because economic strength makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Yesterday’s 5-year Note sale did not go too well, leading many to believe there is little chance of a strong demand in today’s 7-year Note sale. If we do get another lackluster interest in today’s auction, we most likely will see further weakness in bonds this afternoon. That may cause upward revisions to mortgage rates after the results are posted at 1:00 PM ET.
There are two important releases scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important piece of data we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate during the second quarter. A smaller decline will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow. But a larger than expected decline could fuel a bond market rally and lead to lower mortgage pricing.
The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates if it varies much from forecasts. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.3%.
I would not be surprised to see afternoon revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon and a sizable move tomorrow. If today’s auction does not show a fairly strong interest from investors, particularly international buyers, and tomorrow’s GDP reading gives us a stronger than expected reading, those changes will probably reflect higher rates. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following strong stock gains and renewed fears about the amount of debt the government is selling. The stock markets are rallying around fairly positive earnings reports that have the Dow up 129 points and the Nasdaq up 35 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
Today’s only economic news was weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They reported that 584,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This nearly matched forecasts and therefore has had no impact on this morning’s bond trading or mortgage rates.
Neither of yesterday’s afternoon events were favorable to bonds. The Fed Beige Book indicated that the economy is stabilizing in several regions of the U.S., which is bad for bonds because economic strength makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Yesterday’s 5-year Note sale did not go too well, leading many to believe there is little chance of a strong demand in today’s 7-year Note sale. If we do get another lackluster interest in today’s auction, we most likely will see further weakness in bonds this afternoon. That may cause upward revisions to mortgage rates after the results are posted at 1:00 PM ET.
There are two important releases scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important piece of data we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate during the second quarter. A smaller decline will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates tomorrow. But a larger than expected decline could fuel a bond market rally and lead to lower mortgage pricing.
The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates if it varies much from forecasts. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.3%.
I would not be surprised to see afternoon revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon and a sizable move tomorrow. If today’s auction does not show a fairly strong interest from investors, particularly international buyers, and tomorrow’s GDP reading gives us a stronger than expected reading, those changes will probably reflect higher rates. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 7.29.2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive ground following the release of weaker than expected economic data and another soft opening in stocks. The Dow is currently down 37 points while the Nasdaq has slid 10 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that new orders for durable goods fell 2.5% last month. This was much weaker than the 0.5% decline that was expected, indicating that manufacturing activity for big-ticket items is slowing. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a slowing manufacturing sector makes an economic recovery less likely anytime soon. However, a secondary reading that tracks new orders excluding the most volatile transportation-related orders showed a 1.1% increase. That was much higher than analysts were expecting, but fortunately bond traders have ignored the news.
We have an afternoon release that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 ET today. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week gave us a recent update, I don’t think we will see any significant surprises in this report. Therefore, we will likely see little movement in mortgage rates this afternoon as a result of this report, but the possibly does exist.
Also today is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a strong demand, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage rates later today.
There is no relevant monthly or quarterly economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures, but this data is not considered to be of high importance because it basically tracks only a week’s worth of new claims. It is expected to show that 585,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. The larger the number, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates. But, unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t see this news having much of an influence on bond trading or mortgage rates tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive ground following the release of weaker than expected economic data and another soft opening in stocks. The Dow is currently down 37 points while the Nasdaq has slid 10 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that new orders for durable goods fell 2.5% last month. This was much weaker than the 0.5% decline that was expected, indicating that manufacturing activity for big-ticket items is slowing. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a slowing manufacturing sector makes an economic recovery less likely anytime soon. However, a secondary reading that tracks new orders excluding the most volatile transportation-related orders showed a 1.1% increase. That was much higher than analysts were expecting, but fortunately bond traders have ignored the news.
We have an afternoon release that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 ET today. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week gave us a recent update, I don’t think we will see any significant surprises in this report. Therefore, we will likely see little movement in mortgage rates this afternoon as a result of this report, but the possibly does exist.
Also today is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with a strong demand, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates fall during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage rates later today.
There is no relevant monthly or quarterly economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures, but this data is not considered to be of high importance because it basically tracks only a week’s worth of new claims. It is expected to show that 585,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. The larger the number, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates. But, unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t see this news having much of an influence on bond trading or mortgage rates tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Monday, July 27, 2009
Daily Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 07.27.2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for this week’s events. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 41 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning rates.
Today’s only relevant economic news was June’s New Home Sales that revealed a surprising jump of 11% in sales of newly constructed homes. This was a much larger than expected increase and put sales at their highest level since last November, hinting that the housing sector may be stabilizing. This is negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, but today’s weak opening in bonds has more to do with the amount of government debt being sold this week (over $200 billion) than this data.
Tomorrow’s key report is July’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 48.7, which would be a lightly lower reading than June’s reading.
Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week. The two most important are Wednesday’s 5-year and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales, but there are auctions everyday except Friday. The last auctions of the 5-year and 7-year securities were met with very good demand from investors. That led to bond strength following the sales. But this is a record amount of debt being sold this week, so we need to proceed with caution over the next few days. Results of the sales will be posted 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong again in Wednesday and Thursday’s sales, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates during afternoon trading those days.
Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important report of the week is Friday’s preliminary GDP reading, making it one of the most important days of the week. But it is difficult to say which day we can expect to see the most movement in rates as several of releases and scheduled events have the potential to influence mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for this week’s events. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 41 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning rates.
Today’s only relevant economic news was June’s New Home Sales that revealed a surprising jump of 11% in sales of newly constructed homes. This was a much larger than expected increase and put sales at their highest level since last November, hinting that the housing sector may be stabilizing. This is negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, but today’s weak opening in bonds has more to do with the amount of government debt being sold this week (over $200 billion) than this data.
Tomorrow’s key report is July’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 48.7, which would be a lightly lower reading than June’s reading.
Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week. The two most important are Wednesday’s 5-year and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales, but there are auctions everyday except Friday. The last auctions of the 5-year and 7-year securities were met with very good demand from investors. That led to bond strength following the sales. But this is a record amount of debt being sold this week, so we need to proceed with caution over the next few days. Results of the sales will be posted 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong again in Wednesday and Thursday’s sales, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates during afternoon trading those days.
Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important report of the week is Friday’s preliminary GDP reading, making it one of the most important days of the week. But it is difficult to say which day we can expect to see the most movement in rates as several of releases and scheduled events have the potential to influence mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
This weeks Mortgage Market
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
There are several important reports scheduled for release this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first is tomorrow’s release of June’s New Home Sales that gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is expected to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the housing sector gained some strength. That would be considered negative news for bonds, but since this data tracks only 25% of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July late Tuesday morning. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 48.7, which would be a lightly lower reading than June’s reading.
Wednesday brings us two events that are relevant to mortgage rates. The first will come from the Commerce Department when they will post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are currently calling for a decline in news orders of 0.5% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last at least three years. A stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning. If it reveals a much larger than expected decline, mortgage rates should drop. It should be noted that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move mortgage rates much. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report Wednesday afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week gave us a recent update, I don’t think we will see any significant surprises in this report. Therefore, we will likely see little movement in mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon as a result of this report.
There is no relevant monthly or quarterly data scheduled for release Thursday, but there are two releases scheduled to be posted Friday morning. The first is the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate during the second quarter. A smaller decline will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates Friday. But a larger than expected decline would likely fuel a bond market rally and lead to lower mortgage pricing. The second report of the day Friday is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates if it varies much from forecasts. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.3%.
Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week. The two most important are Wednesday’s 5-year Note and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales. The last auctions of these securities were met with very good demand from investors. That led to bond strength following the sales. Results of this week’s auctions will be posted 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong again, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important report of the week is Friday’s preliminary GDP reading, making it one of the most important days of the week. But it is difficult to say which day we can expect to see the most movement in rates as several of releases and scheduled events have the potential to influence mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
There are several important reports scheduled for release this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first is tomorrow’s release of June’s New Home Sales that gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is expected to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the housing sector gained some strength. That would be considered negative news for bonds, but since this data tracks only 25% of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July late Tuesday morning. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 48.7, which would be a lightly lower reading than June’s reading.
Wednesday brings us two events that are relevant to mortgage rates. The first will come from the Commerce Department when they will post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are currently calling for a decline in news orders of 0.5% from May to June. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last at least three years. A stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning. If it reveals a much larger than expected decline, mortgage rates should drop. It should be noted that this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so a minor difference between forecasts and the actual reading may not move mortgage rates much. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report Wednesday afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week gave us a recent update, I don’t think we will see any significant surprises in this report. Therefore, we will likely see little movement in mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon as a result of this report.
There is no relevant monthly or quarterly data scheduled for release Thursday, but there are two releases scheduled to be posted Friday morning. The first is the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic activity. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. This reading is arguably the single most important we get regularly. Current forecasts are estimating that the economy shrank at a 1.5% annual rate during the second quarter. A smaller decline will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates Friday. But a larger than expected decline would likely fuel a bond market rally and lead to lower mortgage pricing. The second report of the day Friday is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates if it varies much from forecasts. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.3%.
Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week. The two most important are Wednesday’s 5-year Note and Thursday’s 7-year Note sales. The last auctions of these securities were met with very good demand from investors. That led to bond strength following the sales. Results of this week’s auctions will be posted 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong again, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important report of the week is Friday’s preliminary GDP reading, making it one of the most important days of the week. But it is difficult to say which day we can expect to see the most movement in rates as several of releases and scheduled events have the potential to influence mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Friday, July 24, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 07/24/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite slightly stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are in negative ground with the Dow down 37 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 to .250 of a discount point.
The University of Michigan’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment was today’s only relevant economic data. It revealed a reading of 66.0 that was a little higher than the preliminary reading of 64.6. This means that more surveyed consumers felt more comfortable with their own financial situations than earlier this month. This technically is negative news for bonds and mortgage pricing because higher levels of consumer confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. That adds fuel to economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. However, today’s report is considered to be only moderately important to the markets, so its impact has been relatively minimal.
Unless the stock markets stage a sizable rally or sell-off, I suspect bond prices and mortgage rates will remain near current levels the rest of the day. There is not relevant news or events expected this afternoon to influence trading either way.
Next week is pretty busy in terms of economic releases. There is relevant economic data scheduled for release four out of the five days, including Monday morning when June’s New Home Sales data is posted. This report is the sister release to this week’s Existing Home Sales data, but is next week’s least important monthly or quarterly report. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Friday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite slightly stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are in negative ground with the Dow down 37 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 to .250 of a discount point.
The University of Michigan’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment was today’s only relevant economic data. It revealed a reading of 66.0 that was a little higher than the preliminary reading of 64.6. This means that more surveyed consumers felt more comfortable with their own financial situations than earlier this month. This technically is negative news for bonds and mortgage pricing because higher levels of consumer confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. That adds fuel to economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. However, today’s report is considered to be only moderately important to the markets, so its impact has been relatively minimal.
Unless the stock markets stage a sizable rally or sell-off, I suspect bond prices and mortgage rates will remain near current levels the rest of the day. There is not relevant news or events expected this afternoon to influence trading either way.
Next week is pretty busy in terms of economic releases. There is relevant economic data scheduled for release four out of the five days, including Monday morning when June’s New Home Sales data is posted. This report is the sister release to this week’s Existing Home Sales data, but is next week’s least important monthly or quarterly report. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 07.23.2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are showing strength during early trading with the Dow up 135 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
This morning’s early data came from the Labor Deportment who reported that 554,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable increase from the previous week, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this figure was close to analysts’ forecasts and since this data is not considered highly important, its impact on this morning’s mortgage rates has been minimal.
The National Association of Realtors gave us June’s Existing Home Sales report. They showed an increase of 3.6% in home resales last month. This was slightly higher than expected, but it was not enough of a variance to influence this morning’s bond trading or mortgage rates.
Neither of today’s economic releases have enough influence to lead to this morning’s stock strength and bond weakness. I suspect the selling in bonds is much more of a result of the stock gains as investors sell bond holding and shift funds into stocks. Whether this is temporary or a trend is yet to be seen. But I am staying on the cautious side towards mortgage rates as it appears there is more room for bonds to fall, at least short-term.
Tomorrow’s only relevant economic data is the final revision to July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment that will help us measure consumer optimism about their own financial situations. This is important because rising consumer confidence means that consumers may be apt to make large purchases in the near future. This adds fuel to the economic recovery and is looked at as bad news for bonds. It is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate, I think the markets will probably shrug this news off.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are showing strength during early trading with the Dow up 135 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
This morning’s early data came from the Labor Deportment who reported that 554,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable increase from the previous week, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this figure was close to analysts’ forecasts and since this data is not considered highly important, its impact on this morning’s mortgage rates has been minimal.
The National Association of Realtors gave us June’s Existing Home Sales report. They showed an increase of 3.6% in home resales last month. This was slightly higher than expected, but it was not enough of a variance to influence this morning’s bond trading or mortgage rates.
Neither of today’s economic releases have enough influence to lead to this morning’s stock strength and bond weakness. I suspect the selling in bonds is much more of a result of the stock gains as investors sell bond holding and shift funds into stocks. Whether this is temporary or a trend is yet to be seen. But I am staying on the cautious side towards mortgage rates as it appears there is more room for bonds to fall, at least short-term.
Tomorrow’s only relevant economic data is the final revision to July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment that will help us measure consumer optimism about their own financial situations. This is important because rising consumer confidence means that consumers may be apt to make large purchases in the near future. This adds fuel to the economic recovery and is looked at as bad news for bonds. It is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate, I think the markets will probably shrug this news off.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic new scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 17 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point due to continued strength during afternoon trading yesterday.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is in the second stage of his semi-annual testimony to Congress on the status of the economy and monetary policy by testifying to the Senate Banking Committee today. There is little likelihood of him saying anything different from yesterday’s testimony. Therefore, I am expecting little reaction in the markets and mortgage rates this morning or afternoon.
Tomorrow brings us the release of June’s Existing Home Sales figures from the National Association of Realtors. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered highly important and often has a minimal impact on mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase from May’s sales totals. A smaller than expected increase or a decline in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weak housing sector would make it difficult for the economy to recover anytime soon. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will not lead to much of a change in rates.
The Labor Deportment will post weekly unemployment numbers early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show that 558,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be a sizable increase from the previous week’s 522,000 claims, which would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets because it tracks a short period of claims. So unless it varies greatly from forecasts it probably will have little influence on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Wednesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic new scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 17 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point due to continued strength during afternoon trading yesterday.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is in the second stage of his semi-annual testimony to Congress on the status of the economy and monetary policy by testifying to the Senate Banking Committee today. There is little likelihood of him saying anything different from yesterday’s testimony. Therefore, I am expecting little reaction in the markets and mortgage rates this morning or afternoon.
Tomorrow brings us the release of June’s Existing Home Sales figures from the National Association of Realtors. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered highly important and often has a minimal impact on mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase from May’s sales totals. A smaller than expected increase or a decline in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weak housing sector would make it difficult for the economy to recover anytime soon. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will not lead to much of a change in rates.
The Labor Deportment will post weekly unemployment numbers early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show that 558,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be a sizable increase from the previous week’s 522,000 claims, which would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets because it tracks a short period of claims. So unless it varies greatly from forecasts it probably will have little influence on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 07-21-2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market initially opened in negative territory but has since rallied well into positive ground. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 60 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 19/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.
Today’s bond rally is the result of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to Congress on the status of the economy and monetary policy. He stated that the economy’s slowdown has slowed significantly, meaning the recession may be ending relatively soon. But he cautioned that there is uncertainty ahead for the economy and strengthening may be gradual. He also sated that the labor market remains weak and that the unemployment rate will likely remain higher than they would prefer until 2012 or later.
The weak employment and housing markets should help keep inflation under control in the near future, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. This led to the surge in bond prices this morning and pushed today’s mortgage rates lower. And if bond prices continue to rise, we may even see more improvements in rates later today. In other words, today’s events were extremely favorable to mortgage shoppers.
Mr. Bernanke will repeat this act tomorrow to the Senate Banking Committee, likely with little change to his prepared testimony. Therefore, his words are not expected to have much of an impact on the markets unless an answer to a Senator’s question surprises traders or contradicts something portrayed today.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow to influence bond trading or mortgage rates. This should be good news for mortgage rates as today’s rally may continue into tomorrow’s trading with nothing on the calendar that has the potential to derail it.
The next monthly economic data comes from the National Association of Realtors Thursday morning when they post June’s Existing Home Sales figures. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered highly important and often has a minimal impact on mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase from May’s sales totals. A smaller than expected increase or a decline in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weak housing sector would make it difficult for the economy to recover anytime soon. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will not lead to much of a change in rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Tuesday’s bond market initially opened in negative territory but has since rallied well into positive ground. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 60 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 19/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.
Today’s bond rally is the result of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to Congress on the status of the economy and monetary policy. He stated that the economy’s slowdown has slowed significantly, meaning the recession may be ending relatively soon. But he cautioned that there is uncertainty ahead for the economy and strengthening may be gradual. He also sated that the labor market remains weak and that the unemployment rate will likely remain higher than they would prefer until 2012 or later.
The weak employment and housing markets should help keep inflation under control in the near future, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. This led to the surge in bond prices this morning and pushed today’s mortgage rates lower. And if bond prices continue to rise, we may even see more improvements in rates later today. In other words, today’s events were extremely favorable to mortgage shoppers.
Mr. Bernanke will repeat this act tomorrow to the Senate Banking Committee, likely with little change to his prepared testimony. Therefore, his words are not expected to have much of an impact on the markets unless an answer to a Senator’s question surprises traders or contradicts something portrayed today.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow to influence bond trading or mortgage rates. This should be good news for mortgage rates as today’s rally may continue into tomorrow’s trading with nothing on the calendar that has the potential to derail it.
The next monthly economic data comes from the National Association of Realtors Thursday morning when they post June’s Existing Home Sales figures. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered highly important and often has a minimal impact on mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an increase from May’s sales totals. A smaller than expected increase or a decline in sales would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weak housing sector would make it difficult for the economy to recover anytime soon. However, unless this data varies greatly from forecasts it probably will not lead to much of a change in rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Monday, July 20, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 07-20-2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly following stronger than expected economic news and minor gains in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week in positive territory with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s levels.
The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, reported that their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.7% last month. Analysts were expecting a 0.5% increase, meaning that the index is predicting more economic activity over the next three to six months than many had thought. That news is considered bad for bonds, but fortunately this index is considered to be only moderately important to bonds and mortgage rates.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before the House Financial Services Committee. This is day one his semi-annual testimony on the Fed’s monetary policy and the status of the economy. He will speak to the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. Analysts and traders will be watching his words closely for any hint of the Fed’s next move with key interest rates. They will likely create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows.
If his testimony indicates that inflation is a point of concern or that the economy looks to recover sooner than thought, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise. We usually see the most movement in rates during the first day of testimony as the Chairman’s prepared words for both appearances are quite similar to each other, meaning that the second day rarely gives us anything we did not hear during the first day.
Overall, this is a moderately significant week for the bond market and mortgage rates. If we get weaker than expected economic results and Chairman Bernanke’s words do not surprise the markets, we may see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, if Mr. Bernanke’s testimony raises inflation concerns- rates may again move higher on the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly following stronger than expected economic news and minor gains in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week in positive territory with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday’s levels.
The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, reported that their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.7% last month. Analysts were expecting a 0.5% increase, meaning that the index is predicting more economic activity over the next three to six months than many had thought. That news is considered bad for bonds, but fortunately this index is considered to be only moderately important to bonds and mortgage rates.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before the House Financial Services Committee. This is day one his semi-annual testimony on the Fed’s monetary policy and the status of the economy. He will speak to the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday morning. Analysts and traders will be watching his words closely for any hint of the Fed’s next move with key interest rates. They will likely create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows.
If his testimony indicates that inflation is a point of concern or that the economy looks to recover sooner than thought, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise. We usually see the most movement in rates during the first day of testimony as the Chairman’s prepared words for both appearances are quite similar to each other, meaning that the second day rarely gives us anything we did not hear during the first day.
Overall, this is a moderately significant week for the bond market and mortgage rates. If we get weaker than expected economic results and Chairman Bernanke’s words do not surprise the markets, we may see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, if Mr. Bernanke’s testimony raises inflation concerns- rates may again move higher on the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. See testimonials. Call me 800-941-5616 or email me with questions: jeff@starmortgage.com
Monday, July 13, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary Monday, July 13
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened flat as traders prepare for this week’s events. The stock markets are starting the week with early strength as the Dow has gained 80 points and the Nasdaq is up 9 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Friday’s close, but we will likely see an improvement in today’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in trading Friday afternoon.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
The first relevant data comes early tomorrow morning when the Labor Department posts June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.8% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The bond market should react quite favorably if we get weaker than expected readings, but a larger than expected jump in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher tomorrow.
June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted early tomorrow morning. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.5% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.
Overall, I think we will probably see the most movement in mortgage pricing tomorrow or Wednesday due to the importance of the economic releases those days. The week’s corporate earnings also have the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates via stock market swings. If the major earnings reports show better than expected results, we can expect to see the major stock indexes rally. This would lead to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and in the process bonds will fall. The results would be higher mortgage rates. The other possibility is weaker than expected results from the key companies that would lead to stock selling and a bond market rally. One thing is a safe bet though- it will likely be an active week for the markets and mortgage rates. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Monday’s bond market has opened flat as traders prepare for this week’s events. The stock markets are starting the week with early strength as the Dow has gained 80 points and the Nasdaq is up 9 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Friday’s close, but we will likely see an improvement in today’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in trading Friday afternoon.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
The first relevant data comes early tomorrow morning when the Labor Department posts June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.8% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The bond market should react quite favorably if we get weaker than expected readings, but a larger than expected jump in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher tomorrow.
June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted early tomorrow morning. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.5% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.
Overall, I think we will probably see the most movement in mortgage pricing tomorrow or Wednesday due to the importance of the economic releases those days. The week’s corporate earnings also have the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates via stock market swings. If the major earnings reports show better than expected results, we can expect to see the major stock indexes rally. This would lead to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and in the process bonds will fall. The results would be higher mortgage rates. The other possibility is weaker than expected results from the key companies that would lead to stock selling and a bond market rally. One thing is a safe bet though- it will likely be an active week for the markets and mortgage rates. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Mortgage Commentary week of 7-12-2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This week brings us the release of five important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
The first piece of data comes Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.8% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The bond market should react quite favorably if we get weaker than expected readings, but a larger than expected jump in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher Tuesday. June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted Tuesday. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.5% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.
Next on tap is Wednesday’s release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of Tuesday’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.6% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data. The core data is also considered to be the key reading because it gives us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher both days. June’s Industrial Production data will also be posted Wednesday morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed weakening conditions during the month. That is basically good news for bonds, however, with seasonal shutdowns and auto-related weakness likely included, a sizable decline should not surprise many.
Also worth noting about Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting or give any indication of the Fed’s possible next move with monetary policy.
There is no relevant monthly or quarterly data scheduled for release Thursday. Friday’s only relevant data is June’s Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don’t see this data having much of an impact on mortgage rates Friday unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Overall, I think we will probably see the most movement in mortgage pricing Tuesday or Wednesday due to the importance of the economic releases those days. The week’s corporate earnings also have the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates via stock market swings. If the major earnings reports show better than expected results, we can expect to see the major stock indexes rally. This would lead to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and in the process bonds will fall. The results would be higher mortgage rates. The other possibility is weaker than expected results from the key companies that would lead to stock selling and a bond market rally. One thing is safe bet though- it will likely be an active week for the markets and mortgage rates. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
This week brings us the release of five important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
The first piece of data comes Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.8% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The bond market should react quite favorably if we get weaker than expected readings, but a larger than expected jump in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher Tuesday. June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted Tuesday. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.5% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.
Next on tap is Wednesday’s release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of Tuesday’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.6% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data. The core data is also considered to be the key reading because it gives us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher both days. June’s Industrial Production data will also be posted Wednesday morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed weakening conditions during the month. That is basically good news for bonds, however, with seasonal shutdowns and auto-related weakness likely included, a sizable decline should not surprise many.
Also worth noting about Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting or give any indication of the Fed’s possible next move with monetary policy.
There is no relevant monthly or quarterly data scheduled for release Thursday. Friday’s only relevant data is June’s Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don’t see this data having much of an impact on mortgage rates Friday unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Overall, I think we will probably see the most movement in mortgage pricing Tuesday or Wednesday due to the importance of the economic releases those days. The week’s corporate earnings also have the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates via stock market swings. If the major earnings reports show better than expected results, we can expect to see the major stock indexes rally. This would lead to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and in the process bonds will fall. The results would be higher mortgage rates. The other possibility is weaker than expected results from the key companies that would lead to stock selling and a bond market rally. One thing is safe bet though- it will likely be an active week for the markets and mortgage rates. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 2009, July 8th
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat again as investors prepare for the events of the next couple of days. The stock markets are showing minor gains after yesterday’s afternoon sell-off. The Dow is currently up 28 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates near yesterday’s morning rates.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release yet again today. But we do have two issues that are quite relevant to bond trading and mortgage rates. The first is today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the sale was met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we could see bonds rally during afternoon trading. The flip side is that a weak demand would indicate a waning interest in U.S. securities, making current bonds less appealing to investors. That likely would drive bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher this afternoon.
The second event is the release of quarterly earnings from Dow component Alcoa after the stock markets close today. They traditionally are the first major company to release earnings each quarter. If their results and forecasts fall short of expectations, we can expect to see stocks fall during after-hours trading and early tomorrow morning. The stock weakness could drive bonds higher as traders seek safe-haven in bonds. But if they beat forecasts, we will probably see stocks move higher, drawing funds from bonds and leading to higher mortgage rates in the morning.
The only semi-relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow morning are weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 600,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week’s total. However, this data usually has a limited impact on bond trading and mortgage rates since it gives us only a week’s worth of new claims. With no other relevant economic data on the calendar tomorrow and little news already posted this week, we may see a slightly stronger than usual reaction to the results. But I don’t see this data being a market mover tomorrow or significantly affecting mortgage rates.
Also tomorrow is the Treasury’s sale of 30-year Bonds. This sale is less likely to affect mortgage rates than today’s 10-year Note sale does, but that doesn’t mean we can ignore its results. The same principals apply as today’s sale—a strong demand is favorable for bonds while a lackluster interest could lead to bond weakness and potential increases to mortgage rates.
Friday morning gives us some factual monthly economic data for the markets to digest. Neither of the two reports are considered to be of high importance to the financial markets or mortgage rates, but do carry enough weight to cause some movement if their results vary greatly from forecasts. We will touch more on those in tomorrow’s commentary.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat again as investors prepare for the events of the next couple of days. The stock markets are showing minor gains after yesterday’s afternoon sell-off. The Dow is currently up 28 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates near yesterday’s morning rates.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release yet again today. But we do have two issues that are quite relevant to bond trading and mortgage rates. The first is today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the sale was met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we could see bonds rally during afternoon trading. The flip side is that a weak demand would indicate a waning interest in U.S. securities, making current bonds less appealing to investors. That likely would drive bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher this afternoon.
The second event is the release of quarterly earnings from Dow component Alcoa after the stock markets close today. They traditionally are the first major company to release earnings each quarter. If their results and forecasts fall short of expectations, we can expect to see stocks fall during after-hours trading and early tomorrow morning. The stock weakness could drive bonds higher as traders seek safe-haven in bonds. But if they beat forecasts, we will probably see stocks move higher, drawing funds from bonds and leading to higher mortgage rates in the morning.
The only semi-relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow morning are weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 600,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week’s total. However, this data usually has a limited impact on bond trading and mortgage rates since it gives us only a week’s worth of new claims. With no other relevant economic data on the calendar tomorrow and little news already posted this week, we may see a slightly stronger than usual reaction to the results. But I don’t see this data being a market mover tomorrow or significantly affecting mortgage rates.
Also tomorrow is the Treasury’s sale of 30-year Bonds. This sale is less likely to affect mortgage rates than today’s 10-year Note sale does, but that doesn’t mean we can ignore its results. The same principals apply as today’s sale—a strong demand is favorable for bonds while a lackluster interest could lead to bond weakness and potential increases to mortgage rates.
Friday morning gives us some factual monthly economic data for the markets to digest. Neither of the two reports are considered to be of high importance to the financial markets or mortgage rates, but do carry enough weight to cause some movement if their results vary greatly from forecasts. We will touch more on those in tomorrow’s commentary.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a weak opening on stocks. The stock markets are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 174 points and the Nasdaq 43 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which, with yesterday's late strength, should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
This morning’s economic data gave us mixed results, beginning when the Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rose 0.1% last month to stand at 9.5%. This was slightly lower than the 9.6% that many analysts and market traders had expected and can be considered negative for bonds because it fell short of forecasts. However, the other two headline numbers from this report gave us favorable results and are making the biggest impact on bond trading this morning. The report showed that 467,000 jobs were lost during the month, exceeding forecasts of approximately 365,000. In addition, the reading that gives average hourly earnings showed no change from May’s level. This means that earnings did not rise when they were expected to move higher 0.1%. While the earnings data may not be good for workers, it shows that wage inflation is little threat at this time.
May’s Factory Orders data was released late this morning by the Commerce Department. It showed that combined orders for durable and non-durable goods rose 1.2% last month. This was also stronger than analysts’ forecasts and hints that manufacturing activity was better than expected. Fortunately, this data is not one of the most important reports we see each month and has not derailed this morning’s momentum from the employment figures.
Overall, the Employment report was favorable for bonds with the larger than expected decline in jobs taking center stage. The unemployment rate was somewhat of a disappointment, but it was still an increase from May’s rate. The average hourly earnings reading is the least important of the three but still gave us favorable results. The Factory Orders report was not favorable to bonds or mortgage rates, but it also has nowhere near the level of importance as the monthly Employment report. Therefore, today’s data can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The financial markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday and will reopen Monday morning. There will not be an early close in the bond market today, but I suspect that trading will be thin during afternoon hours as market participants head home for the holiday weekend. This means we should see a fairly quiet afternoon in bonds and mortgage pricing as long as no unexpected news surprises the markets.
Next week is very light in terms of relevant economic data being posted. This could leave the bond market and mortgage rates to the mercy of outside influences. There will be no update to this report tomorrow, but look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a weak opening on stocks. The stock markets are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 174 points and the Nasdaq 43 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which, with yesterday's late strength, should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
This morning’s economic data gave us mixed results, beginning when the Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rose 0.1% last month to stand at 9.5%. This was slightly lower than the 9.6% that many analysts and market traders had expected and can be considered negative for bonds because it fell short of forecasts. However, the other two headline numbers from this report gave us favorable results and are making the biggest impact on bond trading this morning. The report showed that 467,000 jobs were lost during the month, exceeding forecasts of approximately 365,000. In addition, the reading that gives average hourly earnings showed no change from May’s level. This means that earnings did not rise when they were expected to move higher 0.1%. While the earnings data may not be good for workers, it shows that wage inflation is little threat at this time.
May’s Factory Orders data was released late this morning by the Commerce Department. It showed that combined orders for durable and non-durable goods rose 1.2% last month. This was also stronger than analysts’ forecasts and hints that manufacturing activity was better than expected. Fortunately, this data is not one of the most important reports we see each month and has not derailed this morning’s momentum from the employment figures.
Overall, the Employment report was favorable for bonds with the larger than expected decline in jobs taking center stage. The unemployment rate was somewhat of a disappointment, but it was still an increase from May’s rate. The average hourly earnings reading is the least important of the three but still gave us favorable results. The Factory Orders report was not favorable to bonds or mortgage rates, but it also has nowhere near the level of importance as the monthly Employment report. Therefore, today’s data can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The financial markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday and will reopen Monday morning. There will not be an early close in the bond market today, but I suspect that trading will be thin during afternoon hours as market participants head home for the holiday weekend. This means we should see a fairly quiet afternoon in bonds and mortgage pricing as long as no unexpected news surprises the markets.
Next week is very light in terms of relevant economic data being posted. This could leave the bond market and mortgage rates to the mercy of outside influences. There will be no update to this report tomorrow, but look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market. If you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details. Jeff@StarMortgage.com
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