Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/29/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened slightly in positive territory following mixed trading in stocks and no surprises in this week’s only significant economic news. The stock markets are relatively calm with the Dow up 6 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Conference Board posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December late this morning, showing a reading of 52.9. This nearly matched forecasts and indicates that consumer sentiment about their own financial situations was close to where analysts had thought. That can be considered favorable for mortgage rates with the recent negative tone in the bond market. The lack of a higher than expected reading brings somewhat of a sigh of relief following the downward move in bonds over the past two weeks.

Today also brings us the first of two important Treasury auctions on this week’s calendar. 5-year Treasury Notes will be sold today while 7-year Notes will be auctioned tomorrow. Yesterday’s 2-year Note sale, that was less important to mortgage rates than today’s and tomorrow’s sales will be, did not get an overly strong interest from investors. That raises concern that the other two sales may also generate a lackluster demand. If that is the case, we may see further weakness in bonds before the year-end and possibly upward revisions to mortgage rates. If we happen to get good results in the sales, particularly tomorrow’s more important 7-year Note sale, bond prices should move higher and mortgage rates move lower. Results of each auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day, so the potential for afternoon revisions to rates is fairly high today and tomorrow.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow except for weekly unemployment figures. The Labor Department is expected to announce that 460,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week, but unless we see a large variance I don’t think this data will have much of an impact on mortgage rates.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET Thursday and all of the U.S. financial markets will be closed Friday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. They will reopen for regular hours next Monday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/28/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following minor gains in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week in positive ground, but not by much. The Dow is currently up 12 points while the Nasdaq has gained 4 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to Thursday’s morning rates.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today, leaving the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, I suspect that bond prices and mortgage rates will follow suit today.

This week brings us the release of only one piece of economic data that is considered important to mortgage rates in addition to two important Treasury auctions. It is another holiday-shortened week with the New Years Day holiday Friday, so the data may have a heavier impact on trading than usual if it varies from forecasts by much. The bond market will close early Thursday and remain closed Friday as it did last week. With that type of schedule, many traders will not be working the latter part of the week, so any unexpected news or data may lead to a larger than usual reaction in the markets.

The only important release comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board will post its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a pretty important release because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their personal financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can have a significant influence on mortgage rate direction. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in confidence from November’s reading of 49.5. Analysts are expecting tomorrow’s release to show a reading of 53.0. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

This week also has Treasury auctions scheduled the first three days. The two that are most likely to influence mortgage rates are tomorrow’s 5-year and Wednesday’s 7-year Note sales. If those sales are met with a strong demand, particularly Wednesday’s auction, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements to mortgage rates shortly after the results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. But a lackluster investor demand may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET Thursday and all of the U.S. financial markets will be closed Friday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. They will reopen for regular hours next Monday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/23/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s economic data gave us favorable results. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 11 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

November’s Personal Income and Outlays report was the first of today’s three releases. It showed that personal income rose 0.4% last month while spending rose 0.5%. Both of these readings were below forecasts, indicating that consumer ability to spend and their actual spending was not as strong as thought. This is fairly good news for bond and mortgage rates. They still posted strong increases that point towards a strengthening economy, but since they fell short of expectations we can consider the readings positive for bonds.

The second report also gave us a bit of good news. The University of Michigan revised their Index of Consumer Sentiment for December, posting a 72.5 reading that was lower than the previous estimate of 73.4. Current forecasts were calling for a reading of 73.8. This index measures consumer confidence, which is relevant to the markets because falling confidence usually means consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the near future. Slowing consumer spending indicates slower economic growth and makes bonds more attractive to investors.

The last report of the day also gave us results that were positive for bonds and mortgage rates, but since this was the week’s least important report its impact on rates has been minimal. November’s New Home Sales report revealed an 11.3% decline in sales of newly constructed homes. This was a huge difference from forecasts and hints that part of the housing sector is not stable yet.

Tomorrow’s only important data is November’s Durable Goods Orders that will be posted early morning. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years. Analysts are expecting the report to show a 0.5% increase in new orders. A decline in orders would indicate that the manufacturing sector was weaker than many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should drive mortgage rates lower. However, a larger than expected rise in orders could lead to mortgage rates moving higher early tomorrow.

The stock and bond markets will close early tomorrow ahead of the Christmas Day holiday and will remain closed Friday. They will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours. I strongly suspect that trading will be thin tomorrow as many firms keep only a skeleton staff on Christmas Eve. This will likely be the same for many mortgage companies also, so it is highly unlikely to see any afternoon revisions to mortgage rates tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/21/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened down sharply following early stock gains that has shifted funds away from the bond market. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 120 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 27/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .750 of a discount point compared to Friday’s morning rates. Most of this increase comes this morning, but some of it came from weakness late Friday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. As expected, the stock markets are driving bond trading and this morning’s mortgage pricing. The early interest in stocks has caused bond selling and moving funds into stocks where better returns are possible. The result is higher mortgage rates this morning.

This holiday-shortened trading week brings us the release of six monthly or quarterly economic reports. Only a couple of the reports being released are considered to be of high importance to the markets. With the Christmas holiday falling during the week we can expect very thin trading, meaning that we may see a larger reaction than normal to some news because there will be fewer traders working and less transactions being made. This will become more evident as the week progresses.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release. The first is the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP. I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy expanded at a 2.8% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s revision is expected to show the same. A significant upward revision would be considered bad news for bonds, but since this data is quite aged at this point I don’t think it will have much of an impact on mortgage rates tomorrow.

The second report of the day is November’s Existing Home Sales report. This release will come from the National Association of Realtors while Wednesday’s New Home Sales data is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither are considered to be of high importance. And both of the reports are expected to show a small increase in sales. Weaker than expected readings would be considered positive for bonds and mortgage rates because they hint at a weakening housing market, but unless the actual reading varies greatly from forecasts the results will probably have little or no impact on mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets and mortgage rates this week. The bond market will close early Thursday and will be closed all day Friday in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. This means that firms that trade in bonds will likely be keeping only a skeleton staff the latter part of the week and raises the possibility of a stronger reaction to surprises in the economic data than we normally would see. Accordingly, proceed cautiously this week if still floating an interest rate and closing in the immediate future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/18/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing relatively minor gains with the Dow up 8 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but I am still expecting to see a small improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.

We likely will see plenty of movement in stocks today as a result of option expirations. Therefore, we cannot rely on stocks to give direction to bonds since the movement in the major stock indexes will be due more to the expirations than direct concerns or optimism about the economy. In other words, it will likely be a directionless day for unless something unexpected occurs. This will likely prevent seeing changes to mortgage rates this afternoon.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of important economic reports for the markets to digest. Included in next week’s releases are a couple of housing sector reports, data on personal income and spending along with a high profile manufacturing report. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing.

The next two weeks are holiday’s shortened trading weeks due to the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. As we get closer to those particular days, the market tends to thin as traders head home early for the holiday weekends. This sometimes leads to larger than normal reactions to some of the key reports or any significant news releases. But look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/17

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a weak open in stocks. The stock markets are reacting to overseas losses and concerns about the economy after yesterday’s FOMC comments. The Dow is currently down 98 points while the Nasdaq has lost 23 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures early this morning. They announced that 480,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was good news for bonds because it was a higher number of claims than was expected. However, this data usually has little impact on mortgage rates because it tracks only a week’s worth of new claims.

Late this morning, the Conference Board posted their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for November. It showed a 0.9% increase, meaning that they think economic activity will be stronger over the next several months than many analysts had thought. This can be considered negative news for bonds, but since this is only a moderately important report, its impact on bond trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. We likely will see plenty of movement in the stock markets tomorrow as a result of option expirations. Therefore, we cannot rely on stocks to give direction to bonds since the movement in the major stock indexes will be due more to the expirations than direct concerns or optimism about the economy. In other words, it will likely be a directionless day for bonds tomorrow unless something unexpected occurs.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/16/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s inflation data did not cause concern like yesterday’s PPI release did. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 40 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s major news came from the Labor Department who reported that November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% and that the more important core data reading was unchanged from October’s level. The overall reading matched forecasts but the core data fell short of the 0.2% that was expected. This means that inflation at the consumer level of the economy was not nearly as strong as feared after yesterday’s Producer Price Index was posted. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Today’s second release was November's Housing Starts that gave us an indication of housing sector strength. It matched forecasts of an 8.9% rise in construction starts of new homes, but this data is the least important this week’s reports. Its impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

Later today, the two-day FOMC meeting with adjourn. There is not much debate about what the Fed will do at this meeting with little chance of them raising key short-term interest rates. Therefore, the post meeting statement will likely be the sole source of a market reaction. This statement has the potential to have a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates as investors look for any indication of what and when the Fed may do next. Generally speaking, the bond market would like to hear something that indicates the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the meeting’s results.

Tomorrow morning does bring us the release of a moderately important when November’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a sizable increase in activity, meaning that it predicts any expanding economy over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.7% increase from October’s reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds. If it shows a smaller increase, the bond market may move slightly higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Commentary 12/14

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following some surprising inflation news. The stock markets are relatively calm with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is down 13/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us the news that fueled this morning’s bond selling. They said that the Producer Price Index (PPI) spiked 1.8% last month and that the core data reading rose 0.5%. Both of these readings were more than twice forecasts, meaning inflationary pressures were strong at the producer level of the economy last month. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, making them less attractive to investors. The result usually is bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

November’s Industrial Production data also gave us stronger than expected results with a 0.8% increase. Forecasts were calling for a 0.5% increase, indicating that manufacturing activity at U.S. factories, mines and utilities was stronger than thought. This is also bad news for bonds because it points towards a strengthening economy.

This week’s most important economic data tomorrow’s release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is the sister report of today’s Producer Price Index, except it tracks inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.4% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving a more stabile reading for analysts to consider.

November's Housing Starts report will also be released tomorrow morning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report, which is expected to show a sizable increase in starts of new homes, gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it can be considered the least important of this week’s news.

The last FOMC meeting of the year began today and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET tomorrow. There is not much debate about what the Fed will do at this meeting with little chance of them raising key short-term interest rates. Therefore, the post meeting statement will likely be the sole source of a market reaction. This statement has the potential to have a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates as investors look for any indication of what and when the Fed may do next. Generally speaking, the bond market would like to hear something that indicates the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/14/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite early gains in stocks. The stock markets are reacting favorably to both international (Dubai World) and domestic (Citi) news that eased some concerns in the market. The result is the Dow up 28 points while the Nasdaq has gained 14 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday’s rates.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, but the rest of the week brings us several reports and events that are likely to cause movement in mortgage rates. Besides the five relevant economic reports that will be posted between tomorrow and Thursday morning, there also is another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to watch. Two of the five economic reports are considered to be of high importance, so the data should have a heavy influence on the markets and mortgage rates this week.

The first relevant report of the week is one of the two highly important ones. The Labor Department will release November’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early tomorrow morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If tomorrow's release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 0.8% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

November’s Industrial Production data is also scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning, but a little later than the PPI. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts are expecting it to show a 0.5% increase in output. A smaller than expected rise would be good news for bonds, while a stronger than expected reading may result in slightly higher mortgage pricing. However, the PPI release is more important to the markets than this data is.

Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile week in the financial markets and mortgage pricing. The most important day of the week is certainly Wednesday with the CPI and the FOMC meeting both scheduled. However, we may see noticeable movement in rates tomorrow also. Please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet because we may see sizable changes to mortgage pricing more than one day this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/11/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of much stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets have reacted fairly positive to the news with the Dow up 57 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

This morning big news was November’s Retail Sales report that showed a whopping 1.3% spike in sales. This was more than twice the latest forecast of a 0.6% jump. Also, if volatile auto-related sales are excluded, sales rose 1.2%. This reading is triple the forecast of a 0.4% increase, indicating that consumers spent much more last month than many had thought. That is bad news for bonds because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumer spending is rapidly growing, fuel is being added to the overall economy. Generally speaking, weaker economic conditions create a more favorable environment for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day also gave us much stronger than expected results. The University of Michigan posted their Index of Consumer Sentiment for December late this morning. They announced a reading of 73.4 that exceeded forecasts of a 68.9 reading. This means that surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than was expected. That is not favorable news for bonds because consumers tend to spend more when they are more comfortable with their own finances. This leads to higher levels of spending and helps the economy to grow.

Following suit of Wednesday’s 10-year auction, yesterday’s 30-year Bond sale also was weak. Several measurements of how successful the sale goes gave us poor results. This means that investors may be losing interest in acquiring new U.S. debt. That could be a problem for mortgage rates if it continues.

Next week is pretty busy in terms of economic releases and related events. There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday, but the rest of the week brings us data that includes two key inflation readings and the last FOMC meeting of the year. It will likely be another active week for mortgage rates, but look for details on next week’s event sin Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/10/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following yesterday’s weak Treasury auction. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 79 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s economic news wasn’t important enough to heavily influence bond trading, but it has contributed somewhat to the early selling. October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report showed that the U.S. trade deficit stood at a smaller than expected $32.9 billion. This data doesn’t usually directly affect bond trading, but it does influence the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies. A strong dollar makes U.S. securities, including mortgage-related bonds, more attractive to international investors. But today’s release was the week’s least important and has not had an impact on mortgage rates.

The Labor Department gave us some favorable news with an announcement that 474,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a higher total than was expected, but this data is not important enough to erase the negative tone in bonds since yesterday’s auction results were posted.

As mentioned already, yesterday’s 10-year Note sale did not go very well. This means that investor appetite for longer-term U.S. debt was not as strong as hoped for. This also indicates that mortgage bonds, which are considered long-term securities, may see some pressure in the near future due to a lack of buyer interest. If that is true, we can expect to see mortgage rates rise in the near future. Today’s 30-year Bond sale is not as important as yesterday’s sale was, but if we do get a strong demand from investors bond prices could rise during afternoon trading. That may lead to afternoon improvements, but I am not too optimistic it will happen today.

November’s Retail Sales report will be released early tomorrow morning. This is one of the more important reports released each month since it tracks consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. It is expected to show a 0.6% increase in sales at retail level establishments, meaning consumer spending was stronger in November than in October. Since the market is expecting an increase, it will likely take a larger than expected jump in sales for the bond market to react negatively and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase should lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also tomorrow is the release of December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the Retail Sales data report before this data, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 68.9, which would be an increase from last month’s final reading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/9/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Wednesday’s bond market has opened relatively flat following an uneventful opening in stocks. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up a couple of points and the Nasdaq down nearly the same. The bond market is practically unchanged from yesterday’s closing level, so I am expecting little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news being posted today, but we do have the first of this week’s two important Treasury auctions. The 10-year Note sale is being held today while 30-year Bonds will be sold tomorrow. Today’s sale is more important to mortgage rates than tomorrow’s is. If there was a strong demand from investors, we should see bond prices move higher after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. This could lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon. However, if the sale was met with a lackluster interest, there is a pretty decent possibility of seeing higher mortgage pricing later today.

October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $37.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

The Labor Department will post last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to announce that 465,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week. That would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the truth is that this data is not considered to be highly important because it tracks only a week’s worth of new claims. It usually takes a wide variance between the announced total of new claims and forecasts for them to have much of an impact on mortgage rates.

We do get some important economic data Friday morning when November’s Retail Sales report is released. This is one of the more important reports released each month since it tracks consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. It is expected to show a 0.7% increase in sales at retail level establishments, meaning consumer spending was stronger in November than in October. Since the market is expecting an increase, it will likely take a larger than expected jump in sales for the bond market to react negatively and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/8/2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again following early weakness in stocks. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 85 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which should improve mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today or tomorrow. Therefore, I am expecting the stock markets to likely be the biggest influence on bond trading and mortgage rates today. If the major stock indexes move lower we may see bond prices move higher and mortgage rates improve this afternoon.

Tomorrow does bring us the first of this week’s two important Treasury auctions. The 10-year Note sale will be held Wednesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. Wednesday’s auction is the more important of the two events and will likely influence mortgage rates more. Results of each sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we should see afternoon strength in bonds and improvements to mortgage pricing those days.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, tomorrow or Wednesday. October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $37.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/7/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering part of Friday’s sell-off. The stock markets are showing modest gains with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point from Friday’s morning rates.

This week is fairly light in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are only three on the agenda but one of them is considered to be very important and can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there are two Treasury auctions the middle part of the week that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is for the sales. Since all of the relevant data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the middle or latter part of the week.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at noon today. This is not considered to be an important speech and likely will not influence mortgage rates. However, whenever he speaks publicly, the possibility does exist that his words could rattle or rally the markets. I am not concerned about this one and don’t feel there should be much attention placed on it.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, tomorrow or Wednesday. October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $37.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile second half of the week with the biggest moves in mortgage pricing likely to come Wednesday or Friday. Friday’s Retail Sales report can cause a great deal of movement in rates, but Wednesday’s Treasury auction may also help determine if rates will close the week higher or lower than tomorrow’s opening levels. It will also be interesting to see if bonds extend Friday’s selling into tomorrow’s trading or if they recover some of those losses. This looks to be one of those weeks that maintaining contact with your mortgage professional would be wise.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12-4-2009

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Friday’s bond market has opened down sharply due to the results of this morning’s Employment report. The stock markets are rallying around the news, pushing the Dow higher by 130 points while the Nasdaq has gained 37 points. The bond market is currently down 34/32, which should translate into an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .625 of a discount point. This equates to approximately .125 of a percent in rate.

The Labor Department gave us today’s news that was so bad for bonds. They reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 10.0% last month when it was expected to remain at 10.2%. They also announced that only 11,000 jobs were lost last month, falling well short of the 125,000 loss that was forecasted. In addition, today’s report also revised October’s job loss lower by 79,000 jobs. These were big numbers for the markets and indicate that the employment sector was not nearly as weak as many had thought. That is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a strengthening labor market means a broader economic recovery is more likely.

In a small bit of good news, the report showed that average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% last month when it was expected to show a 0.2% increase. This means that earnings paid to workers did not rise as much as thought, which is good news for bonds because it eases wage-inflation concerns. However, this is the least important of the three major readings in the data and had little impact on this morning’s bond selling.

Also posted this morning was October’s Factory Orders report. It also revealed a stronger than expected reading for October and revised September’s orders much higher than previously announced. The 0.6% increase was well above forecasts for October, indicating that the manufacturing sector may be gaining steam. While this data can be considered negative for bonds and mortgage pricing, it is not nearly important as the monthly Employment report and has had little influence on this morning’s mortgage rates.

Next week is fairly light in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled for release, especially the first part of the week. There is no relevant economic data scheduled to be posted Monday and the latter part of the week brings us the only important economic news. But we do have a couple of key Treasury auctions to watch the middle days. Look for more details on next week’s data and events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/3/09

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of unfavorable economic news. The stock markets are mixed again with the Dow down 25 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

The 3rd Quarter Productivity revision gave us a lower level of productivity than previously thought and fell short of forecasts. The 8.1% annual rate of worker productivity growth can be considered negative new for bonds because the preliminary estimate stood at 9.5% and forecasts for today’s revision were 8.5%. That is still a healthy rate of productivity, but the fact that it fell short of expectations means it is bad news for bonds.

The Labor Department also gave us news that was not so good for bonds and mortgage rates. They reported that 457,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a lower total than the 480,000 that was expected and their lowest total since September of last year, meaning the employment situation may be stronger than thought. However, this data usually does not carry too much weight because it tracks only a single week’s worth of new claims. Tomorrow’s monthly report is a different story though.

Also worth noting is today’s Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman Bernanke. I don’t think anything said during today’s hearing will significantly affect the markets or mortgage rate. He has stated that the economy is coming out of the recession but that there is still more work to be done. Despite some early barbs in the hearing, there is little doubt that he will be confirmed for another term four-year term.

We will here again from the Labor Department tomorrow morning when they post November’s Employment report. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate of 10.2%, payrolls down approximately 125,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 10.2%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings reading.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the October’s Factory Orders report. This data is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release by giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, except this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but there is little chance of it impacting mortgage rates this tomorrow because the Employment report is an extremely important report. Analysts are expecting to see little change in new orders from September to October.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/2

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news scheduled for release this morning. The stock markets aren’t influencing bond trading either with the major indexes mixed. The Dow is currently down 10 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will still likely see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

Today’s only relevant report comes during afternoon trading. The Fed Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET today. This report, which is simply named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 8.6%, down from the previous estimate of 9.5%.

We also get weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 480,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week, but unless the total varies greatly from this forecast I don’t believe it will have much of an impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com

Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Commentary 12/1

Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic results from a very important report. Stock market gains are likely the cause of this morning’s bond weakness. Stocks are rallying with the Dow up 133 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today’s big news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) who posted their manufacturing index for November. They announced a reading of 53.6 that fell short of the 54.9 that was expected, meaning manufacturer sentiment was weaker than thought. This is supposed to be good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weakening manufacturing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely and eases inflation concerns that hurt bond prices. Unfortunately for mortgage shoppers, today’s data is not influencing trading as much as it usually does.

The Fed Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow and is the day’s only relevant data. This report, which is simply named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Thursday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 8.6%, down from the previous estimate of 9.5%.

I still believe Friday is the day to watch out for. It brings us the almighty monthly Employment report. Its results can erase the entire week’s gains or losses in the hour of trading following its release. It appears that my concern about bonds meeting resistance at current levels was accurate. This will probably remain the case until we get a significant catalyst to break through these levels. Friday’s report certainly has the potential to do this, assuming that the data is favorable to bonds. Until then, it is prudent to remain cautious towards rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Massachusetts mortgage applicants: Please note that this information reflects just one opinion on the current market and should be used for informational purposes only. Today’s mortgage market is very volatile and can change very quickly. www.JeffDrew.StarMortgage.com